ESPN's FPI Picks Clear Favorite in Indiana vs Alabama Rose Bowl Matchup

The Hoosiers and Crimson Tide meet for a Big Ten-SEC College Football Playoff clash in the Rose Bowl. Who is the favorite?

Nov 28, 2025; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Indiana Hoosiers head coach Curt Cignetti looks on before the game against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

The power wielded by a brand name is second to none. A College Football Playoff matchup featuring the No. 1 seed vs. No. 9 seed tends to be a lopsided contest. In any other scenario, especially in which the top-rated team is the lone undefeated club remaining in the country, while the other unit has three losses, the final outcome of the matchup would largely be an afterthought. 

But, in this unforeseen version of events, it’s Indiana vs. Alabama, and the higher-ranked team is not the Crimson Tide. Still, the pedigree of the Alabama name exerts heavy influence in the minds of many, and few expect a landslide victory, or even a comfortable win, for the Hoosiers. 

ESPN's analytics predict Indiana vs Alabama in the Rose Bowl

Indiana Head Coach Curt Cignetti holds up the number one to the crowd as he leaves the field after the Indiana versus Wisconson football game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 15, 2025. | Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Nevertheless, the numbers tell a convincing story: per ESPN’s Football Power Index metric, Indiana has a 71.4 percent chance of knocking off Alabama in the Rose Bowl (4:00 p.m. ET, ESPN). 

Comparing the resumes of Indiana and Alabama

The Hoosiers, as previously mentioned, are yet to suffer a loss in their 2025 campaign. Led by Heisman-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza on offense and a superb, balanced defensive unit on the other end, Indiana has won all 13 of its contests this season – including a 13-10 win over then-No. 1 Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game. 

Curt Cignetti and Co. rolled past a handful of solid teams (seven double-digit wins in Big Ten play), but were challenged on the road at Iowa and Penn State, winning those contests by a combined eight points. 

Complacency kills. pic.twitter.com/YgpK9hnpEX

— Indiana Football (@IndianaFootball) December 26, 2025

Alabama, meanwhile, has three losses – two of which came by double digits. The Crimson Tide fell in their season opener 31-17 to a Florida State club that finished 2-6 in the ACC. They also fell 28-7 to Georgia in the SEC championship, although they knocked off the Bulldogs 24-21 on the road earlier in the season. 

That third misstep came against Oklahoma in a 23-21 home loss, which was recently avenged in Alabama’s opening round 34-24 win over the Sooners to start off CFP play. 

Is ESPN’s assessment fair?

Dec 19, 2025; Norman, OK, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Kalen Deboer looks on from the sidelines in the first half against the Oklahoma Sooners at Gaylord Family OK Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

In all honesty, giving the Hoosiers just a 71.4 percent chance of winning this contest may be an insult to the season they’ve put together.

Their defense is unlike anything the Crimson Tide have seen this season, as Georgia’s lockdown performance in the SEC title game may just be a taste of what Indiana’s defense can do to Alabama. 

Offensively, Indiana boasts the best player in college football, along with a scary arsenal of pass-catching weapons, not to mention a rushing attack that runs for 221.2 yards per game, which is more than any other team in the CFP. 

Expect the Hoosiers to control the trenches, and, in turn, the entire game. The Crimson Tide, aside from the aforementioned brand name, have minimal advantages over Cignetti’s unit.

Simply put, it’d be a shock to see anything but an Indiana victory to open up the New Year.