Evaluating Indiana Football's 2026 Win Total Projection, Schedule, Roster Changes

Coming off the program's first national championship, Indiana is expected to have another successful season under Curt Cignetti.

Indiana Hoosiers coach Curt Cignetti walks the sideline during the College Football Playoff National Championship against the Miami (FL) Hurricanes at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. | Grace Hollars/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Is it football season already?

Not quite, but Indiana is hosting its NFL Pro Day on April 1, and spring football practice for the 2026 Hoosiers is right around the corner. For Indiana fans, it can't come soon enough.

After winning the national championship, the Hoosiers won't sneak up on anyone in coach Curt Cignetti's third season, and projections from oddsmakers reflect that. Here's a look at Indiana's 2026 win total, national title odds, schedule and key roster moves.

Indiana football 2026 win total projection

Indiana's Charlie Becker (80) celebrates with Carter Smith (65) during the College Football Playoff National Championship at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens on Monday, Jan. 19, 2026. | Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Indiana's win total over/under is 10.5, according to the FanDuel Sportsbook on Tuesday. The Hoosiers have -118 odds to go over that total and -104 odds to go under.

This win total only takes into account regular season games, so Indiana would have go to 11-1 in the regular season for an over bet to hit. A 10-2 record or anything worse counts as the under. College Football Playoff games are not taken into consideration.

Other notable win totals

Indiana's 10.5 win total is third-highest in the nation, behind only Notre Dame and Texas Tech. Oregon and Miami, who Indiana defeated during the College Football Playoff last season, have identical win totals at 10.5

Based on these win totals, Notre Dame's most difficult 2026 opponents are Miami (10.5), BYU (8.5) and SMU (8.5). Texas Tech appears to have quite an easy schedule, as none of its 2026 opponents have a win total better than Arizona (7.5) and Houston (7.5).

Here are all the teams with win totals of 8.5 or higher.

• Notre Dame: 11.5
• Texas Tech: 11.5
• Indiana: 10.5
• Oregon: 10.5
• Miami: 10.5
• Penn State: 9.5
• Georgia: 9.5
• Ohio State: 9.5
• Texas: 9.5
• Texas A&M: 8.5
• LSU: 8.5
• Alabama: 8.5
• Michigan: 8.5
• USC: 8.5
• SMU: 8.5
• BYU: 8.5
• Utah: 8.5

Are the Hoosiers CFP-bound again?

Indiana Hoosiers defensive back Amare Ferrell (1) and linebacker Isaiah Jones (46) celebrate against the Miami Hurricanes during the College Football Playoff National Championship game at Hard Rock Stadium. | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Indiana has the fourth-highest odds to win the national championship. The Hoosiers would be the first back-to-back champions since Georgia in 2021 and 2022, and before that, Alabama in 2011 and 2012.

Here are the leaders.

• Ohio State: +550
• Texas: +750
• Notre Dame: +750
• Indiana: +800
• Oregon: +800
• Georgia: +1000
• Miami: +1300

Indiana's 2026 schedule

• Saturday, Sept. 5 vs. North Texas at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, Ind.
• Saturday, Sept. 12 vs. Howard at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, Ind.
• Saturday, Sept. 19 vs. Western Kentucky at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, Ind.
• Saturday, Sept. 26 vs. Northwestern at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, Ind.
• Saturday, Oct. 3 vs. Rutgers at SHI Stadium in Piscataway, N.J.
• Saturday, Oct. 10 vs. Nebraska at Memorial Stadium in Lincoln, Neb.
• Saturday, Oct. 17 vs. Ohio State at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, Ind.
• Saturday, Oct. 24 vs. Michigan at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, Mich.
• Saturday, Oct. 31 vs. Minnesota at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, Ind.
• BYE
• Saturday, Nov. 14 vs. USC at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, Ind.
• Saturday, Nov. 21 vs. Washington at Husky Stadium in Seattle, Wash.
• Saturday, Nov. 28 vs. Purdue at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, Ind.

Takeaways: Indiana plays eight home games, including four to begin the year, and may not play a ranked team until Nebraska or Ohio State in mid-October. That sets up the Hoosiers for a strong start. Cignetti didn't play USC or travel to Washington in his first two seasons at Indiana, which could be tricky matchups toward the end of the season, along with a trip to Michigan. But 10-plus wins certainly seems realistic, and another undefeated season looks possible with the Ohio State game at home.

Key roster moves

TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Josh Hoover (10) against Cincinnati at Amon G. Carter Stadium. | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Departures: QB Fernando Mendoza, RB Roman Hemby, RB Kaelon Black, WR Elijah Sarratt, WR E.J. WIlliams, WR Omar Cooper Jr., TE Riley Nowakowski, C Pat Coogan, OL Kahlil Benson, DL Hosea Wheeler, DL Mikail Kamara, DL Kellan Wyatt, DL Stephen Daley, LB Aiden Fisher, S Louis Moore, S Devan Boykin, CB D'Angelo Ponds.

Notable incoming transfers: QB Josh Hoover, RB Turbo Richard, WR Nick Marsh, WR Shazz Preston, TE Brock Schott, OL Joe Brunner, DL Chiddi Obiazor, DL Tobi Osunsanmi, DL Joshua Burnham, CB A.J. Harris, S Preston Zachman, S Jiquan Sanks.

Returners: RB Lee Beebee Jr., RB Khobie Martin, WR Charlie Becker, OL Carter Smith, OL Bray Lynch, OL Drew Evans, OL Adedamola Ajani, DL Tyrique Tucker, DL Mario Landino, DL Daniel Ndukwe, LB Rolijah Hardy, LB Isaiah Jones, S Amare Ferrell, S Byron Baldwin, CB Jamari Sharpe, K Nico Radicic.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. 

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