Game Day Prediction, 3 Keys For Indiana Football Against Rutgers

Indiana football hosts Rutgers in a crucial homecoming matchup that carries season-long implications. Here are three keys to victory for the Hoosiers, plus a score prediction at the bottom.

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Indiana's homecoming game against Rutgers marks the start of the second half of the 2023 season, and it could determine the course of the rest of the season.

A win would create much-needed momentum into a late-season stretch that includes games against beatable teams like Illinois (3-4), Michigan State (2-4) and Purdue (2-5). In a best-case-scenario outcome, bowl eligibility is still alive, which Indiana coach Tom Allen said has been a motivational tool in this week's preparation. 

But a loss could create a snowball effect with matchups against No. 7 Penn State (6-0) and at Wisconsin (4-2) the next two weeks, leading to a potential five-game skid. At that point, there's the risk of losing buy-in from players.

With these stakes, the 2023 season could hinge on Saturday's outcome against Rutgers. Here are three keys for the Hoosiers, plus a score prediction.

Clean quarterback play

Tom Allen declined to publicly name a starting quarterback this week, but he said they won't rotate quarterbacks in the manner they did against Michigan, when Tayven Jackson and Brendan Sorsby flip-flopped throughout the game. Neither quarterback stood out, so it wouldn't be surprising to see either earn the starting job for Week 8. After tearing his ACL in the 2022 season finale, quarterback Dexter Williams II is getting closer to 100 percent each week, and he was listed questionable against Michigan for the first time. It wouldn't be surprising to see him play, either.

But regardless of who's under center, Indiana desperately needs a clean game with no turnovers from the quarterback and protection from the offensive line. Jackson threw two interceptions and fumbled, and Sorsby fumbled against Michigan, too. There easily could have been more from both.

Contain Wimsatt's rushing ability

Indiana has struggled with mobile quarterbacks in recent years, most recently in Week 4 when Akron quarterback DJ Irons rushed for 141 yards and two touchdowns. Rutgers quarterback Gavin Wimsatt poses a similar challenge Saturday. While he's last in the Big Ten with a 50.9 completion percentage, he takes off and runs fairly often, leading to four rushing touchdowns. Indiana has to contain the edges and force him to throw the ball as much as possible, though Rutgers also has the Big Ten's leading rusher, Kyle Monangai.

Allen sees a challenge with the 6-foot-3, 225-pound Wimsatt, who can scramble when receivers aren't open and pick up yards on designed runs.

"He's big. He's a physical guy," Allen said. "And he's got long speed so, so I just think he's just young and he's gifted. There's no question he's got a strong arm, so he can beat you with his arm, but at the same time he has the ability to run the football ... Obviously a big point of emphasis for us in recent weeks."

Jaylin Lucas in the return game

Rutgers has one of the stingier defenses in the Big Ten. It ranks fifth in points allowed per game (16.0), fourth in yards allowed (276.4) and fifth in sacks (17), mostly behind conference powerhouses Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State. It's unreasonable to expect any of Indiana's young quarterbacks to consistently sustain 75-yard drives, so it's important for Jaylin Lucas to set the Hoosiers up with optimal field position in the return game.

The reigning first-team All-American kick returner doesn't have any return touchdowns this year, but it would really boost Indiana's chances of winning if he got his first on Saturday. 

Score prediction 

Rutgers 20, Indiana 16

Indiana's offense ranks last among Power 5 teams in points per game at 18.5. With a shaky quarterback situation going up against a strong Rutgers defense, it could be another tough day for Indiana's offense. Rutgers has the Big Ten's leading rusher, Kyle Monangai, and Indiana ranks 12th in the conference in run defense, setting up another mismatch.

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• INDIANA QUARTERBACKS: The quarterback situation has been in a constant state of flux in 2023, but coach Tom Allen said Monday he will make a decision this week and, "I'm not going to rotate back and forth." CLICK HERE
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• JACK'S TAKE: Indiana rotated quarterbacks Tayven Jackson and Brendan Sorsby during Saturday’s 52-7 loss at Michigan, but neither made a convincing case to earn the starting job. Dexter Williams II is close to returning from injury, adding another layer to the decision. Indiana needs to stop the rotation and pick one. CLICK HERE