GameDay Prediction: Can Indiana Finally End Its Long Losing Streak to Michigan?
BLOOMINGTON, Ind. — Indiana is 2-0 so far this season, and so am I. I thought they were ready to snap that long losing streak to top-10 teams when the beat Penn State two weeks ago, and I was right on how the win over Rutgers played out.
And now, here comes Michigan. The mighty Wolverines, as we've said repeatedly this week, have won 24 games in a row against Indiana, a streak that dates back 12,062 days to October of 1987.
Indiana is ranked No. 13 in the country, and Michigan, after an ugly loss to Michigan State last week as a three-touchdown favorite, checks in at No. 23. Despite the rankings disparity, it's Michigan who is favored heading into the game, by 3.5 points according to the DraftKings site on Saturday morning.
It is the ultimate toss-up game. And as much as Indiana benefited a week ago by Rutgers winning a week earlier, this trend might swing the other way with Michigan losing last week. They are a desperate, furious team.
"It is going to be very challenging to be able to play for four quarters with the football that we know we have to play, but that's the expectation,'' Indiana coach Tom Allen said Thursday. "If you want to get where we want to be, that's what you have to do.
"That's why we have to be able to take advantage of opportunities like this.''
Yes, opportunities. They don't come along often when you're trying to get a program to the next level. Saturday is that day where Indiana needs to take advantage of this opportunity. And here's why:
It's a rare day when Indiana has the edge over Michigan at the skill positions, but I firmly believe Michael Penix Jr. is a better quarterback that Michigan's Joe Milton. I think Whop Philyor is the best wide receiver on the field and I think Indiana's cornerbacks are far better than Michigan's group.
The stars are aligned for an Indiana victory. So let's end the suspense right here. I've got underdog Indiana today, winning 31-27.
That said, there still are some things that concern me. I do think Michigan is going to try to slam the ball down Indiana's throat in the running game. The Hoosiers have to win that battle at the line of scrimmage. I think they will, because that interior of the defensive line has been very good so far. Still, I'm a bit worried about it.
Michigan's stable of running backs is the best they've seen so far. Indiana needs to bow up, especially on fourth down, where you know Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh won't mind taking chances. Indiana is 5-for-6 in stopping opponents on fourth down, and those five stops are the most in the country among Power 5 schools. They need to win those momentum-changing battles.
The second thing that must happen, I think, is for Indiana's defense to continue to force turnovers. They've forced six in two games, and given the offense short fields to work with. That will help against Michigan too, especially if the Indiana offense can convert those turnovers into touchdowns — and not field goals. If not, trying to go 80 yards all the time against Michigan might be tough.
And what's that last key for me to feel comfortable in picking Indiana? I've watched that Michigan game three times now from last week, and I think the Hoosiers can hit some big plays against them. Michigan State true freshman Ricky White scorched them for 196 yards and three touchdowns last week, and Indiana's receivers can beat man coverage, too.
I won't be a bit surprised if Whop Philyor is the player of the game and that Penix has his best game as a Hoosier. Where Michigan is not as good as they have been recently is with its pass rush. I think Penix will have time to throw, and he will throw it well.
And as I wrote earlier this week, I don't think this moment is too big for Indiana. They've just been through this massive hype with Penn State two weeks ago. They will not be scared. They will not be over-hyped. They will not be overwhelmed by the opportunity they've been presented.
It's all about controlling your emotions. This Indiana team has the experience to do that, at every level. Same with the coaching staff. They've been through enough of these moments now to know what it takes.
They're ready, too
I thoroughly enjoyed Tom Allen's honesty and openness — actually, I always do — during his Thursday news conference. He was asked how he stayed calm in high-pressure weeks like this.
"To be quite honest, I do a lot of praying. That's what I do, that's how I function,'' Allen said. "That keeps me calm. I have memorized scripture, and that keeps me calm. I keep my head on straight by being able to focus on the task at hand, that works for me. I exercise a lot, that keeps me calm by burning up the energy. We do mock games, and I go through situations a lot.
"I have to be able to keep the fire that I always want to coach with, but I also want to be able to be thinking ahead of situations. I think time and experience has helped me with that as head coach, and not calling the defense has helped in that regard in terms of the whole situation as far as special teams, offense and defense. It is just about your mind and being able to stay locked in and focused. There is the emotion, the passion of the game, and things go a certain way or do not go a certain way and you respond to those things. It is just about staying under control.''
Throw in the fact that the long losing streak hovers over the rivalry, and that's a factor, too. It's all about attacking the moment.
"It's that controlled rage kind of thing we talk about a lot with our players,'' he said. "To be able to have a high level of focus, a ton of passion, intensity and fire, but also to be able to stay mentally locked in. I am trying to model what I want our kids to do. That's how I approach it.
"There is no question, every game I get the same nerves, butterflies, and all that stuff that you get because it is the reality that every game is a big game. This one, obviously, has historically gone a certain way, but to me that process does not change. That's what we are trying to get with our guys, I approach it the same way. I spent just as much time doing the certain things that I do leading up to it against this team as we do no matter who the opponent is. We have to make sure that I lead by example in that regard.''
The time has come. The streak ends on Saturday.
Indiana wins.
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