Indiana’s Soft Non-Conference Schedule Could Become a Real Problem in 2026

Much has been made about Indiana's decision to cancel power conference matchups for the rest of the 2020s, but there's a 2026 question that's fair to ask.

Indiana Head Coach Curt Cignetti watches his team get loose before the College Football Playoff National Championship college football game at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens on Monday, Jan. 19, 2026. | Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Indiana's relatively recent decision to punt on facing power conference foes in non-conference play in the 2020s was never really going to impact the 2026 season.

Well, unless you consider wiping off a rescheduled UConn game a perspective-shifting move. That's on you.

But there's real downside to IU's cakewalk non-conference slate this season

Let's start with the obvious. IU will have fewer data points for the selection committee to weigh than plenty of other Playoff contenders.

While so many focused their attention on what would've happened if 2025 Texas had scheduled Rice instead of Ohio State, what many lost sight of was that for the second season in a row, multiple 10-win Power Conference teams failed to make the 12-team Playoff.

Go ask BYU, Utah, Vanderbilt, Virginia, and even Notre Dame what double-digit regular-season wins did for them by the time Selection Sunday rolled around. In 2024, BYU, Miami, and Iowa State all missed the 12-team field after racking up 10 regular-season wins.

What am I saying? That getting to 10 wins by any means necessary isn't a lock to make the 12-team Playoff. When Playoff expansion inevitably happens after 2026, we can revisit that conversation and how IU's favorable non-conference scheduling will impact that.

As for 2026, it can potentially do more harm than good for another reason.

What's the test before that Ohio State game?

In case you don't have the IU schedule pulled up right now, here's what you need to know about how it shakes out before that massive showdown against the Buckeyes in Bloomington on Oct. 17.

In addition to not having a Power Conference foe in non-conference play, IU will start off Big Ten play with a trio of foes who lost at least six games last year. The lone road trips will be to Rutgers and Nebraska.

Check out this graphic from The Next Round and tell me how likely it is that those two will be a formidable foe for Curt Cignetti, who has yet to lose to an unranked foe through two seasons at IU.

Power 4 School Records vs. Ranked Opponents In CFP Era pic.twitter.com/ssh5uM9KX3

— The Next Round (@NextRoundLive) May 4, 2026

So to recap, IU's two games preceding Ohio State will be against the two teams who accounted for the worst record vs. AP Top 25 teams in the Playoff era (2-71 combined).

Call that a couple of favorable tune-ups, or call it potential false confidence.

IU isn't going to know how good it is until that Ohio State game rolls around. Period.

We could be talking about a top-5 matchup with the Hoosiers riding what would be a 22-game winning streak, and yet, a more battle-tested Ohio State could expose all of IU's potential flaws — possibly being a turnover-prone Josh Hoover and an alpha-lacking defense — en route to a Memorial Stadium-silencing victory.

That's worst-case scenario.

You could point out that IU might stand to benefit in the long term from that type of experience. That's possible.

What's also possible is that IU hits the latter half of the season knowing that the path to a Playoff berth isn't as wide open as originally thought. Maybe IU has a loss to give, or maybe a 10-2 IU who didn't seek that non-conference opportunity against Power Conference competition is punished.

Also, don't convince yourself that IU's newfound championship status will be the difference

We watched the selection committee not reward defending runner-up Notre Dame last year, and when everyone was convinced that 2024 Alabama would still find a way into the field ahead of two-loss SMU, it was on the outside looking in.

It's too early to assume that the selection committee will feel one way or another about IU's entire Playoff résumé.

Thankfully for IU's sake, it didn't have to sweat that out in the first two seasons of the expanded Playoff because it had a combined one regular-season loss.

Even with a regular-season over/under of 10.5 wins, that could be put to the test this year. That post-Ohio State schedule has potential land mines at Michigan and at Washington. If IU is going to defend its title by earning a third consecutive Playoff berth, those are the types of games it'll need to look the part.

But it's a shame that this version of IU is playing a non-conference schedule that was originally designed to perhaps fuel a Pinstripe Bowl berth.

The standard has changed. So, too, have the late-season eyeballs on the Hoosiers.

Come Selection Sunday, those eyeballs might be looking long and hard at the lack of non-conference data points.