Jack's Take: Walt Bell's Answer About Indiana's Offensive Identity is Concerning
BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Throughout a 29-27 win over Akron that spanned four overtimes, it was difficult to decipher Indiana's offensive identity.
The offense generated 282 yards, scored just one offensive touchdown through four quarters, converted 3-of-14 third downs and ran for 2.7 yards per carry. Quarterback Tayven Jackson completed 11-of-26 passes for 190 yards, one touchdown and one interception. It was an all-around abysmal performance against a team that's won only six games since 2019.
"I think everybody sitting in this room knows it wasn't very good," Indiana offensive coordinator Walt Bell said. "And it wasn't good enough."
At Monday's press conference, Bell was asked to describe the identity of his offense and if he feels like that identity can consistently move the ball and score points.
His response was concerning.
"From an identity standpoint, we're a run-first football team," Bell said. "There's going to be an option element to it, because of that there's going to be play-action. Then every week it's going to be doing everything we can to make sure that Tayven as a young guy is comfortable and can find completions."
"We're getting what we want from the intent to win the game," Bell said. "But we're not playing well enough right now."
There's a difference between what an offense wants to be good at and what it can be good at, and the Hoosiers are facing an identity crisis after their 2-2 start. Bell insists he wants Indiana to be a run-first team. That’s great in its own right. I want to pitch in the MLB some day. At this point, both are pipe dreams. Look at Indiana's 2023 rushing statistics.
Indiana has run the ball 136 times for 435 yards and seven touchdowns. That puts the Hoosiers 13th out of 14 Big Ten teams in total rushing yards, 13th in rushing yards per game, last in yards per carry and tied for eighth in touchdowns. Indiana's 108.8 rushing yards per game rank 114th out of 133 Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) teams.
Pro Football Focus (PFF), a site that grades every player and every snap, gives Indiana a 54.0 run blocking grade this season, which ties for 103rd out of 133. PFF gives Indiana a 63.9 grade for rushing, which ties for 123rd out of 133.
Expected Points Added (EPA) is a metric that measures the difference between a team’s expected points before the snap and after the play ends. Through three weeks, Indiana had a rushing EPA of -0.263, which ranks 127th out of 133 teams. By this measurement, Indiana is giving itself a worse chance of being productive by running the football.
Need more evidence? Look at the goal-line failures. Indiana had a chance to tie or win late in the Louisville game, but it could not gain a measly 18 inches on a run with Josh Henderson up the middle. Indiana was shut down at the two-yard line or closer on four separate instances against Akron, and nothing Bell called worked. Indiana tried two direct-snap runs to quarterback-turned-receiver Donaven McCulley. Akron stuffed him twice. Christian Turner was denied at the two-yard line. Jackson failed to cross the goal line on a quarterback sneak the next play.
"The short-yardage goal line, especially coming off Louisville and how much time that was invested in that, we had to be better there," Bell said. "I grew up with a high school coach that, probably like everybody else's high school head coach, said if you can't get a yard, you don't deserve to win."
Indiana didn’t deserve to win Saturday night. Akron missed a 32-yard field goal at the end of regulation that should have ended the game right there.
To put it simply, Indiana has been a bad running team this year. Bell's comments don't necessarily mean he wants Indiana to be a run-heavy team, but they at least suggest that running the ball will be a consistent emphasis each week. At the very least, it means Indiana will not be pass-heavy or pass-first like it was last season, when Connor Bazelak finished with the second-most pass attempts among Big Ten quarterbacks despite playing only 10 games.
To make matters worse, running back Josh Henderson missed the Akron game with an injury, and he could miss future games. We likely won't get a specific time frame on Henderson's return, as Allen has deferred to the pregame availability reports for most injury questions. But Bell said Monday, "With Josh being down for a little bit, [Turner is] a guy that's going to get a lion's share of those reps."
In an expanded role, Turner ran the ball 13 times for 67 yards and a touchdown Saturday against Akron. These numbers don't jump off the page, but it's the second-most productive game from an Indiana running back this season, both in total yards and yards per carry, behind Jaylin Lucas’ 88-yard, two-touchdown performance on 10 carries against Indiana State. Turner had two productive seasons at Wake Forest, rushing for 1,022 yards, four yards per carry and 12 touchdowns, but Indiana's offensive system has not been kind to any running back for the last two seasons.
Lucas is likely Indiana's most talented running back due to his speed, agility and quickness. But aside from two touchdown runs against an overmatched Indiana State defense, he's been most valuable in the passing game and as a first-team All-American kick returner in 2022. Against Akron, he generated just 43 yards on 13 attempts, or 3.3 yards per carry. Even more mind-boggling, he finished with zero receptions after hauling in 10 passes for 98 yards and a touchdown the previous week against Louisville.
Bell's explanation for not using Lucas in the pass game was that Akron defenders essentially shadowed him, and that Lucas played more running back than receiver because Indiana needed him in the backfield with Henderson out, "But as we get the other backs up to speed, [Lucas will] be all over the place coming up this next week." If Akron can figure out how to contain a special talent like Lucas, and Bell has no answer for it, Indiana is in serious trouble against Big Ten opponents the rest of the way.
All of this is not to say Indiana should put air-raid responsibilities on the shoulders of its redshirt freshman quarterback. But if Bell wants this team's offensive identity to be running the ball, Indiana is going nowhere fast.
Look at some of Indiana's best drives of the season, and stats reveal it can move the ball with Jackson as a passer. Aside from a physically dominant performance against Indiana State, an FCS team, Indiana's offense was most impressive in the second half against Louisville, a 4-0 squad primed to finish toward the top of the ACC.
Indiana started the second half with a 3-play, 54-yard touchdown drive, which consisted of 21- and 30-yard passes to Lucas – one that was completed three yards past the line of scrimmage and outside the hash mark; the other was completed one step before the goal line. Indiana's second touchdown drive of that game covered 13 plays and 97 yards, and Jackson completed 7-of-9 passes, three of which went for 11 or more yards.
Lucas and Henderson got the next drive going with runs of seven and 12 yards, respectively. But Jackson got the Hoosiers into scoring position with a 41-yard pass to Cam Camper, a 10-yard pass to Lucas and a pass interference penalty. Then, Indiana was denied on four rushing attempts within the 10-yard line.
Through four games, Indiana has run the ball 136 times compared to 118 pass attempts. Its lack of success in the run game shows that should at least be flipped.
On Monday, Allen was asked if the play calling this season has maximized the potential of the offense and if adjustments are needed moving forward. Allen is clearly upset with the lack of offensive production through four games, but he largely avoided delving into specifics.
"Well, obviously, on Saturday it was not," Allen said. "We did not score points offensively. We did not take advantage of situations offensively. And you can look at different reasons for that. But the bottom line is at the end of the day, it's the job of the offense to score ... That's everything. It's play calling. It's technique. It's the scheme adjustments. It's everything we need to do to be able to maximize our guys and help us get the ball in the end zone."
Moving forward, Indiana has a number of serious problems to solve on offense. It starts up front with an offensive line that looked better than last season during the first three games, then had by far its worst performance of the year against Akron. Unless that unit is able to improve quickly, Bell's assertion that Indiana should be a run-first offense is concerning for the big-picture outlook on the season.
The offensive shortcomings don't fall completely on the offensive line, though. Indiana has a promising young quarterback, as well as talented skill players like Lucas and Camper. And it’s Bell's responsibility to design ways to maximize the offense. Through 16 games since he was hired, those answers have been few and far between.
Related stories on Indiana football
- STOCK UP, STOCK DOWN: It was hard to draw many positives from Indiana's discouraging 29-27 win over Akron in four overtimes, but we tried our best to find them in this week's "Stock Up, Stock Down" story. CLICK HERE
- IU-AKRON COLUMN: Indiana could have easily lost Saturday night against Akron due to offensive failures and attitude concerns, but it somehow eked out a 29-27 win in quadruple overtime. A win is just about the only positive takeaway, as the Hoosiers have plenty to fix heading into Big Ten play. CLICK HERE
- GAME STORY: In one of the craziest games of the Tom Allen era, Indiana escaped Memorial Stadium with a 29-27 win over coach Joe Moorhead and the Akron Zips in four overtimes. CLICK HERE
