Where Indiana Would Have Been In 24-Team College Football Playoff

The College Football Playoff expanding from four to 12 teams in 2025 made for an entertaining product, with several competitive first round and quarterfinal matchups that otherwise wouldn't have happened.

But how much expansion is too much?

That's what many may wonder while reading a recent report by ESPN's Pete Thamel, which details the Big Ten's proposal for a 24-team College Football Playoff format. Under this new format, conference championship games would be eliminated. There'd be no automatic qualifiers, and the committee would select the 23 best teams, plus one Group of 6 representative.

This would not affect the 2026 season, which is officially keeping the 12-team playoff model. But according to Thamel, the Big Ten wants a 16-team playoff in 2027 and 2028, and then a 24-team playoff no later than 2029.

Nothing can be done to diminish Indiana's 16-0 national championship run in coach Curt Cignetti's second season. But now that the Hoosiers are relevant nationally, it's interesting to consider what might have been different and how things could change moving forward.

How a 24-team College Football Playoff would have affected Indiana in 2025-26

Curt Cignetti Indiana Football — Indiana coach Curt Cignetti during the College Football Playoff National Championship at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens on Monday, Jan. 19, 2026. | Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The path to the title game may have been mostly unchanged, but No. 1 Indiana would have one additional game –– a home game against the winner of No. 16 seed USC and No. 17 seed Arizona.

From the fan base's perspective, it would have been cool to host a College Football Playoff game at Memorial Stadium. Despite making the CFP the last two seasons, Indiana still hasn't hosted a home playoff game. Sellout crowds have become common over the last two years in Bloomington, and this would have been the best yet.

But from a football standpoint, this likely wouldn't have changed anything for Indiana. USC had a solid 9-4 season under Lincoln Riley, highlighted by a win over No. 15 Michigan. But the Trojans also lost most of their big games, falling to No. 23 Illinois, No. 13 Notre Dame, No. 6 Oregon and to TCU in the Alamo Bowl. Even with the benefit of hindsight, to think USC or Arizona would upset the Hoosiers is unrealistic.

From then on, Indiana's path could theoretically be identical to how it played out, but expansion makes way for other potential outcomes. Here's what the bracket would have looked like.

NEW: An internal Big Ten document explores a 24-team College Football Playoff. It offers a peek at what that model could look like, as another off-season of CFP discussion is set to unfold. Details here: https://t.co/on2sqej1H8 pic.twitter.com/j6twmdqyFp
— Pete Thamel (@PeteThamel) February 13, 2026

In the quarterfinals, the Hoosiers would have played the winner of No. 8 Oklahoma vs. No. 9 Alabama/No. 24 James Madison. Knowing that Indiana destroyed Alabama 38-3 in the Rose Bowl, and that James Madison kept things relatively close in a 51-34 loss at Oregon, could there have been a first-round upset? Possibly, but Indiana would have taken care of business against any of these three teams.

Things get more interesting in the quarterfinals, however. Indiana would have met one of the following six teams: No. 4 Texas Tech, No. 5 Oregon, No. 12 BYU, No. 13 Texas, No. 20 Tulane or No. 21 Houston.

I could see BYU giving Oregon a close game in the quarterfinals, and I think Texas could have taken down Texas Tech. So instead of an Indiana-Oregon rematch that turned into a blowout, perhaps the Hoosiers would have had a tougher time against Arch Manning and the Longhorns in the quarterfinals. I'm still not picking against Indiana, though.

Indiana's national championship opponent still could have been Miami –– or Georgia, Ole Miss and Texas A&M, who had their chance to get there in the 12-team playoff –– but a few other teams would have joined the mix in this expanded playoff.

Jeremiyah Love Notre Dame Football — Notre Dame Fighting Irish running back Jeremiyah Love (4) scores a touchdown against Indiana in the first round of the College Football Playoff on Friday, Dec. 20, 2024, in South Bend. | Christine Tannous/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

That includes No. 11 Notre Dame, No. 14 Vanderbilt, No. 15 Utah, No. 18 Michigan, No. 19 Virginia, No. 22 Georgia Tech and No. 23 Iowa. Perhaps the most interesting game would have been an Indiana-Notre Dame rematch from the 2025 CFP.

The Irish handled the Hoosiers fairly easily in a 27-17 win that featured two Indiana touchdowns in the final five minutes in South Bend. But I think 2025 Indiana was stronger than 2024 Indiana on both the offensive and defensive lines and had a better quarterback. Plus, this game would be at a neutral site.

On the other side, Notre Dame regressed a bit in 2025 and started off slow with losses to Miami and Texas A&M by a combined four points. But by the end of the season, the Irish weren't a far cry from their national runner-up the previous year.

They're also a bit more difficult to judge because of a weaker schedule that only featured two ranked teams –– No. 20 USC and No. 23 Pittsburgh –– in the final 10 weeks. Again, I'm still going with the Hoosiers in a potential rematch with Notre Dame, as the Hoosiers proved to be flawless, dominant and incredibly well-coached all season.

Another consideration is that Notre Dame could have beaten Ole Miss in the second round, and then lost to Georgia. In that scenario, I could see Georgia giving Miami a tough game in the semifinals and facing Indiana in the championship. But again, there's no reason to think Indiana would lose to anybody at this point.

So outside of a potential run by a team like Texas, BYU, Notre Dame or Vanderbilt altering Indiana's path, a 24-team playoff in 2025-26 likely wouldn't have changed much. But in the ever-changing world of college football, it's something interesting to consider, especially now that the Hoosiers are a national power.

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