Analytics Disrespect Iowa vs. USC Despite Winning Streak

All eyes are on the Iowa Hawkeyes as they are one of two remaining teams undefeated in the B1G.

UCLA punched their ticket to a 10-0 conference record with their 80-67 victory at Illinois on January 28. Now, it's up to Iowa to take down USC and also be 10-0 heading into their highly anticipated showdown on February 1.

While on paper, everything favors Iowa in this matchup, the 11-9 (3-6) Trojans are actually favored. Despite Iowa being the No. 8 team in the nation and their 18-2 (9-0) record, ESPN Analytics gives USC a 53.1% chance to win.

In No World Should Iowa Be The Underdog

GAMEDAY 😤 pic.twitter.com/B5QEVa4S2C
— Iowa Women's Basketball (@IowaWBB) January 29, 2026

ESPN Analytics has never unveiled how their numbers actually work, but this is a real head shaker. Iowa has won eight straight games, four of those being against ranked opponents. Keep in mind, they've taken down a pair of No. 15 ranked teams and No. 12 in their last three games.

In USC's last eight games, they've gone 2-6. The Trojans haven't had it easy as they took on five ranked teams in that stretch, but it's not like their strength of schedule has been any more difficult than Iowa's.

If anything, this is the ultimate trap game. USC has won just one of their last seven games, but four of those six losses were to ranked opponents. The Trojans have a trio of ranked wins this season, but only one of the teams they've beaten is currently still in the Top 25.

Iowa Can't Sleep On USC

Heading West ✈️ pic.twitter.com/94s9mVJ2eV
— Iowa Women's Basketball (@IowaWBB) January 28, 2026

Iowa made their trip to the west coast and is now looking to prove they are the top team in the conference. Should they fall to USC, all of that talk would be put to rest.

The Hawkeyes haven't lost since No. 1 UConn embarrassed them in New York. Iowa's only two losses this year have been to ranked opponents, something the Trojans can't say. USC lost to Oregon at home not too long ago, a team Iowa beat by eight points.

USC continues to hang in there against top opponents, so it should be no different against Iowa. The Trojans just lost to No. 13 Michigan State, 74-68, and No. 7 Michigan, 73-67. Keep in mind, both of those games were on the road.

At the end of the day, there's simply no world where USC should be favored over Iowa. Them playing at home isn't that important as Iowa has a ranked road win to their name just seven days ago. Time and time again the Hawkeyes are counted out as this is only further motivation to get the job done.

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