Fairleigh Dickinson Upset Chances: Knights' Only Path to Victory Against Iowa

The Iowa Hawkeyes have opened as massive favorites, and rightfully so, as they received the No. 2 seed and get to play host to No. 15 Fairleigh Dickinson.

The Knights come into this game with their 30-4 record but have no idea what is about to hit them. Sure, they've won a ton of games this season, but Iowa is ready to end their 22-game winning streak in an instant.

ESPN Analytics gives Iowa a 98% chance to win this game. They've included the game odds, courtesy of DraftKings, which has the Hawkeyes as a 31.5 point favorite.

Playing this game at Carver certainly helps, but there is one way where FDU comes to Iowa City and gets the job done. It would shock the world, but crazier things have certainly happened, especially in March Madness.

FDU's Defense is Second to None

Iowa G Taylor Stremlo — Mar 8, 2026; Indianapolis, IN, USA; UCLA Bruins guard Kiki Rice (1) recovers a loose ball against Iowa Hawkeyes guard Taylor Stremlow (1) during the first half at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

The Knights are 12-3 on the road this season and all three of those losses have come to quality opponents. Iowa would certainly argue Rutgers isn't a great loss to have on their resume, but FDU started their season with back-to-back losses at Purdue and Notre Dame.

Their defense allowed only 59 points against Rutgers and just 67 against Purdue. They may have given up 98 against Notre Dame, but that's a team that was ranked No. 15 at the time and finished the year at No. 22 in the AP Top 25.

Regardless, it's clear the Knights defense is going to be their best shot at winning this game. All it takes is a cold night from Iowa for FDU to take care of business. This is a team that's held their opponents to just 51.3 points per game, and one can only imagine what that number would be if their game against the Fighting Irish was excluded.

Knights Have Only Allowed 60+ Points in a Game Twice in 2026

Iowa G Addie Dea — Iowa guard Addie Deal (7) passes the basketball during a game against the Illinois Fighting Illini Feb. 26, 2026 at Carver-Hawkeye Arena in Iowa City, Iowa. | Julia Hansen/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Looking at this 21 game sample size, FDU has only allowed 60+ points twice. The first of which was on January 8 at Chicago State, a team that had no business dropping 64 on them. A month later, February 7, Mercyhurst also put up 64.

FDU has allowed 40 points or fewer three times which is arguably more impressive than allowing 60+. In fact, they allowed just 28 points on January 4 at Saint Francis. Other incredible wins saw them allow just 38 vs. Le Monye and 39 vs. Saint Francis. Defense is clearly their specialty, but allowing these numbers against the Hawkeyes is going to be far easier said than done.

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