Film Study: Why Iowa Will Upset Illinois in NCAA Tournament

A Final Four is on the line. Can the Iowa Hawkeyes pull off the upset and move on, or will their season end at the hands of the Illinois Fighting Illini?

Jan 11, 2026; Iowa City, Iowa, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes forward Cam Manyawu (3) and Illinois Fighting Illini center Tomislav Ivisic (13) battle for the opening tipoff during the first half at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images | Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

For the fourth NCAA tournament game in a row, the Iowa Hawkeyes are underdogs — at least when it pertains to the seed line.

That hasn’t mattered so far, as the Hawkeyes have steamrolled their way through No. 8 Clemson, No. 1 Florida and No. 4 Nebraska. And if Iowa wants to keep its season alive and make it to the Final Four, then it’ll need to take down No. 3 Illinois Fighting Illini.

The familiarity between these two programs enhances the intrigue of what already would’ve been a fantastic matchup in the Elite Eight. Sure, there are massive stakes — a trip to the Final Four is on the line — but this is also a chance to prove to a Big Ten rival who’s the real boss in town.

Iowa already did that with Nebraska. Can it do it again vs. Illinois?

Wagler’s Success is the Key

Mar 26, 2026; Houston, TX, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Keaton Wagler (23) dribbles the ball against the Houston Cougars in the first half during a Sweet Sixteen game of the South Regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Unlike some of the other schools Iowa has faced so far in March Madness, Illinois is equipped with a certified superstar who could be a top NBA Draft pick this summer. Freshman guard Keaton Wagler, a native of Shawnee, Kan., has been sensational in what will most likely be his lone year in college. He’s averaging 17.7 points, 5.1 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game, all while shooting 44.4% from the field. He’s also lethal beyond the arc, making 3-pointers at a 41.1% clip.

If Iowa is to upset the Fighting Illini, keeping Wagler at bay is a necessity. The good news is that he hasn’t made that big of an impact throughout the first several games of this tournament. Yes, he scored 18 points in Illinois’ 105-70 win over Penn in the first round, but he’s managed just 14 and 13 in the last two contests against VCU and Houston.

Stopping Wagler won’t necessarily guarantee the Hawkeyes a victory — there are many other capable scorers on Illinois’ roster who can pick up the load, the last two games being fantastic examples of that — but it would get them one step closer to doing the unthinkable and making the program’s first Final Four since 1980.

Can Iowa Pull Off the Upset?

So, can Iowa upset Illinois? Saying anything other than yes would be a misrepresentation of the possibilities. Of course, the Hawkeyes can win in the Elite Eight! This is a team that’s already upended the apple cart by taking care of the reigning national champions, as well as an upstart Cornhuskers squad that was in the midst of its most successful season in school history.

There’s no doubt that it’ll be difficult — all games in the NCAA tournament are at this stage — but head coach Ben McCollum has gotten the team this far, so why can’t he take it further?

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