Iowa Bubble Watch: Why Hawkeyes Deserves to Be in March Madness

First year Iowa Hawkeyes head coach Ben McCollum had a chance to make sure his squad was a "lock" in the tournament on February 22, but it's been chaos ever since.

Iowa lost that game at Wisconsin, 84-71, fresh off a massive victory over No. 9 Nebraska. There's no doubt that's their biggest win of the year, but they're just 2-5 since that game.

As part of Neil Paine's ESPN Bubble Watch, Iowa has been stuck in the "should be in" category for nearly a month.

There are seven teams in the B1G that are in "lock" territory, but Paine expects there to be nine total bids from the conference. Currently, only Iowa and Ohio State are in the "should be in" category which would round out the nine team mark.

Top 40 Resume

Iowa HC Ben McCollu — Mar 12, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes head coach Ben McCollum gestures to his team against the Ohio State Buckeyes during the first half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images | David Banks-Imagn Images

Nearly double-digit teams are making it out of the B1G into the NCAA Tournament which proves just how much of a gauntlet this conference is. Iowa had to start conference action against No. 7 Michigan State but didn't let their first loss of the year phase them.

Iowa was 18-5 at one point which is crazy to think knowing they're currently 21-12. They've gone 3-7 since taking down Northwestern, a record that isn't too great with March Madness right around the corner.

Either way, four of those losses were to ranked teams. Iowa, time and time again, adds quality Quad 1 losses to their resume. They have one major win, something that should undoubtedly get them into the dance.

At-Large Probability: 94%

Iowa G Tavion Bank — Mar 12, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes guard Tavion Banks (6) goes to the basket against the Ohio State Buckeyes during the first half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images | Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

There don't seem to be any conference tournament miracles that will be enough to keep Iowa out of March Madness. Their drought seems to be coming to an end, and this team has McCollum and Bennett Stirtz to thank for that.

Iowa could fall to a double-digit seed thanks to their B1G third-round loss to Ohio State, but that may not be the end of the world. Either way, this team has their work cut out for them against a Top 2 seed in the second round, should they even make it that far.

The Hawkeyes have faced a boatload of ranked teams this year but only came out victorious once. Their win against Nebraska wasn't a fluke, and they proved that by taking the Cornhuskers to overtime on the road. Iowa may have only won one conference tournament game, but that snapped a three-game losing streak and proved this team can still get the job done.

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