Iowa Upset Chances: Path to Victory Against Florida in NCAA Tournament

The Iowa Hawkeyes were able to pick up a win in the first round of the NCAA Tournament despite an off night from their star point guard.

Bennett Stirtz, a future first-round draft pick, still led the team in scoring, but he was just 4-for-17 from the field.

Stirtz rarely has an off night, but when he does, he seems to follow it up with a masterclass. Florida doesn't know what's about to hit them, and it could be a second-round upset that shocks the nation.

Iowa is looking to play spoiler to not only the defending National Champions, but they're also looking to defeat the Gators in their home state of Florida.

Iowa Must Dictate The Pace

Tip time is set.

⚠️ 6:10 pm (CT) on TBS
🕺 Round of 32
📍 Benchmark International Arena pic.twitter.com/co1puViR0C
— Iowa Men’s Basketball (@IowaHoops) March 21, 2026

This seems to be a key in every game for Iowa, but it couldn't be more true. Ben McCollum has set the standard in Iowa City, and while it may be one of the slowest paces in the nation, it suits this team extremely well.

Up until the final two minutes, Iowa vs. Clemson didn't feature a single fast-break point. The Tigers ended the night with seven, while Iowa added one. For reference, Florida had 18 turnovers against Prairie View A&M.

Mar 20, 2026; Tampa, FL, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes guard Bennett Stirtz (14) is defended by Clemson Tigers guard Butta Johnson (4) and guard Dillon Hunter (2) in the second half during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

The Hawkeyes and Tigers turned the ball over just 11 times combined. Even though 11 of Clemson's 61 points came off Iowa's turnovers, that still didn't decide the game. Eight turnovers against the No. 8 seed is quite a nice spot to be in, but must find a way to replicate that performance against the Gators.

Keep it Low Scoring, Make Everything Difficult for Florida

Let’s Keep Dancing 🕺 pic.twitter.com/O3SCKUXGfV
— Iowa Men’s Basketball (@IowaHoops) March 21, 2026

This is a Florida team that has scored 100+ points on six occasions this season. Iowa's defense has lived up to the challenge against top teams like Michigan and Nebraska, but Florida seems to be an entirely different challenge.

The Gators were an astonishing 45-for-70 from the field against the Knights in the first round. They somehow made 64% of their field goals while Iowa made just 38% of theirs in a six-point win over the Tigers.

There's no doubt that field goal percentage needs to go way down if Iowa wants any chance of leaving Tampa with a second-round victory. Sure, Florida had 64 points in the paint, but they also made 10 three-pointers, so it's clear they can beat you from everywhere and that's something Iowa has to be prepared for.

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