Iowa on Upset Watch in Second-Round Matchup Against Virginia

It seemed like the No. 2 Iowa Hawkeyes were one of the most slept-on teams coming into this year's NCAA tournament.

On the contrary, Iowa entered this year's tournament at 26-6 overall. But its performance in the Big Ten championship game may have soured some people on this team's potential.

After avoiding what would've been a historic first-round upset in a close 58-48 win over Fairleigh Dickinson, Iowa now knows it'll be playing No. 10 Virginia in the second round.

The Cavaliers have hung in there all year long, and they'll look to do the same once more against a Hawkeyes team that nearly was on the wrong side of history.

Iowa Must Cool Down Virginia

A trio of Virginia players was in for 40+ minutes against Georgia, so that could certainly play a factor in their third game in five days. Seeing as this Cavaliers team didn't make it out of the second round of the ACC tournament, they don't have a ton of experience playing on short rest.

An early lead for Virginia is crucial, as Iowa is going to have a chip on its shoulder and wants to get the crowd fired up early. In no world do the Hawkeyes want to lose on their home court, especially coming off that dreadful first-round performance.

Iowa Hawkeyes center Ava Heiden — Iowa center Ava Heiden (5) grabs the basketball March 21, 2026 during a First Round NCAA March Madness game against the Fairleigh Dickinson Knights at Carver-Hawkeye Arena in Iowa City, Iowa. | Julia Hansen/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

At the end of the day, a win is a win, and Iowa will take whatever it can get. Virginia trailed for 44% of the game against Georgia, so the Cavaliers certainly are used to playing from behind, but that's the last thing they want to be stuck doing at Carver.

Limit the Cavaliers From 3-Point Range

Boom or bust is the perfect way to describe how Virginia operates from 3-point range. This is a Cavaliers team that made just four of their 23 attempts in the First Four against Arizona State, but they still managed to pull out a 2-point win.

With just one day to rest, Virginia went from shooting 17% from three to shooting 48%. The Cavs drilled 10 3-pointers against Georgia on just 21 attempts. It's clear they made some adjustments when it came to shot selection and that paid off big time.

Off nights are going to happen, but it's hard to imagine Iowa will play that poorly two games in a row. If Virginia is struggling to hit threes, it's going to mess with them mentally and this Iowa team isn't going to let them score 24+ in the paint as they have so far in the tournament.

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