Iowa Has New Projected Opponent in NCAA Tournament

Nothing will be finalized until March 15, but in the meantime it's fun to speculate and keep up with Bracketology projections.

The Iowa Hawkeyes have had to sit back and wait as they were embarrassed by UCLA in the B1G Championship game, 96-45. Iowa now sits at 26-6 overall with three of those losses being to the Top 2 teams in the entire nation.

While the Hawkeyes projection hasn't changed, their projected opponent has. Many would be shocked if Iowa doesn't come out as a No. 2 seed, though the No. 15 seed they are projected to face remains a mystery.

New No. 15 Seed: CA Baptist

⚔️🏀@CBUwbb dominates the WAC Postseason Awards cycle, winning four of the five major awards and earning seven players on the All-WAC teams in total!

👉https://t.co/0fkxlqOOoL #LanceUp⚔️
— California Baptist Lancers (@CBULancers) March 11, 2026

Previously, Iowa was projected to face Green Bay out of the Horizon League. It wouldn't have been too far of a drive for the Phoenix, a mid-major team who seems to make the NCAA Tournament on a yearly basis.

Now though, Iowa may have to prepare for an entirely different team. Second year head coach Jan Jensen knows she can't get too far ahead of herself, but these Bracketology updates are coming in hot and heavy now that Selection Sunday is right around the corner.

At one point the Lancers were actually projected to be a No. 14 seed. They are far from a lock to be the No. 15 seed as their conference tournament is taking place this weekend. The Lancers are set to do battle with Tarleton State in the WAC Tournament semi-finals.

Iowa Remains in Region 4 with No. 1 South Carolina

Iowa C Ava Heide — Iowa center Ava Heiden (5) collides with Illinois forward Berry Wallace (23) during a basketball game Feb. 26, 2026 at Carver-Hawkeye Arena in Iowa City, Iowa. | Julia Hansen/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The 31-3 Gamecocks are sitting pretty as the No. 1 seed in this region which happens to be out of Sacramento. Obviously, the top seeds get to host the first two rounds and then things get interesting from there.

As of March 13 at 12:05 p.m. EST, Charlie Creme's Bracketology had four changes. CA Baptist happened to be one of those, though that was the only projected change in Iowa's region.

Should the Hawkeyes secure a round one victory, they'd be tasked with playing either No. 7 Oregon or No. 10 South Dakota State. Again, nothing is final until the official bracket is revealed, but Iowa could be in for a B1G rematch against the Ducks in the Round of 32.

The No. 3 seed in their region is TCU while an in-conference rival, Michigan, is No. 4. North Carolina sits at No. 5 and Alabama rounds out the Top 7 at No. 6.

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