Three Last-Minute Iowa vs. Purdue Predictions

It's not often a team has a chance to make an impression on Valentine's Day, but that's the scenario the Iowa Hawkeyes happen to be in.

After being on the opposite end of a horrific loss to Maryland, Iowa now has to regroup and look ahead to the future.

Staring them in the face is No. 13 Purdue, a team that already beat them earlier in the year. Granted, the Boilermakers were ranked No. 5 at the time and only won by seven points.

Now, a sold-out Carver Hawkeye Arena has a chance to remember this Valentines Day forever. Iowa comes in as underdogs, but that doesn't mean they can't work their magic and pull off an upset.

1. Bennett Stirtz Revenge Game

Iowa G Bennett Stirt — Feb 11, 2026; College Park, Maryland, USA; Maryland Terrapins guard David Coit (8) attempts a lay up in front of Iowa Hawkeyes guard Bennett Stirtz (#14) at Xfinity Center. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Sabau-Imagn Images | Jamie Sabau-Imagn Images

It's hard to call this a "revenge game" when he dropped a team-high 19 points on Purdue the first time around, but that total is now below his season average. Stirtz, who played just 37 minutes against the Boilermakers earlier this season, is a lock to play 39 or 40 this time.

Since Iowa fell to Purdue on January 14, Stirtz has been a one-man wrecking crew. His name is attached to numerous award watch lists and he was named back to back B1G Co-Player of the Week. He did everything in his power to lead this team to victory against Maryland, but not even 32 points was enough. Having dropped 30+ in back-to-back games, Purdue better have a good gameplan to stop him.

2. Iowa Cuts Back On Three-Point Attempts

Sometimes this team lives and dies by the three-ball and that's not always the best thing. Against the Terrapins, they made just seven of their 28 attempts and finished 10% worse than what Maryland was. Even though Maryland only made one more three-pointer, they took smarter shots throughout the game.

Against Purdue the first time around, Iowa finished 12-25. They shot 5% better than the Boilermakers, but both teams were an even 53% from the field overall. If Iowa trims their game down to 20 attempts with most of them being great looks, they'll be in much better shape.

3. Iowa's Defense Steps Up

Iowa G Tavion Bank — Feb 11, 2026; College Park, Maryland, USA; Maryland Terrapins forward Solomon Washington (9) drives to the basket as Iowa Hawkeyes guard Tavion Banks (#6) defends in the second half at Xfinity Center. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Sabau-Imagn Images | Jamie Sabau-Imagn Images

A glaring number against Purdue the first time around was the fact that Iowa allowed 32 points in the paint. When looking at their loss to Maryland, they allowed 30. Clearly, those numbers need to be trimmed down.

Having a sold-out home crowd is going to be a huge advantage, something this team has yet to experience this season. It's been years since Carver will have been this packed for a men's game, and that's yet another reason why this defense will be all over Purdue in attempt to pull off a miracle.

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