Preview, Prediction: Citrus Bowl
In this story:
IOWA CITY, Iowa - A key to predicting a college football bowl game's outcome is measuring interest level of the participants. An exciting bid for one team might be a disappointment for another program.
That makes handicapping the Citrus Bowl difficult. Iowa and Kentucky should be engaged and motivated. The Hawkeyes can achieve a rare 11-win season, while the Wildcats are searching for a 10th victory.
"It's going to be fun because Kentucky is going to give us their best shot," Iowa cornerback Riley Moss said. "They're going to come out and punch us in the mouth and we're going to come out and do the same thing.
"It'll be a good experience, and it will be a hard-fought game, for sure."
Each team has won its last 15 non-conference contests, the longest active streaks in the country. The programs have emerged victorious in their last three bowl games, tied for the third-longest active streak in FBS.
"I'm really excited to play this game," Kentucky offensive lineman Luke Fortner said. "When I first got here Kentucky, we went 7-5 my freshman year. It was when Coach (Mark) Stoops really started turning the program around.
"To be part of that and to be able to continually build towards something like another Citrus Bowl victory in the last three years, four years would be really big for us."
The Wildcats (9-3) will be playing in the Citrus for the second time in the last four seasons. Iowa competes in the game for the first time since the 2004 season, when it beat LSU, 30-25, on a memorable game-ending touchdown pass from Drew Tate to Warren Holloway.
The Citrus participants each beat five bowl eligible teams in '21. The Hawkeyes 10 wins came against squads with a combined regular-season record of 51-69. Kentucky won nine contests against programs with a combined 44-63 mark. Three of the Wildcats' victories were versus New Mexico State, Louisiana-Monroe and Chattanooga.
Stoops, an Iowa Football alumnus and former graduate assistant with the Hawkeyes, is in his ninth season as Kentucky's coach. He will join his brothers, Bob and Mike, in coaching against their alma mater in Iowa.
"It's really big for us," Fortner said. "(Mark Stoops) talked a lot about the way he felt when he was at Iowa. And I think the best thing about it is I believe that's the way we feel about coach Stoops. And the coaching staff here are father figures to us and they make us feel comfortable. And they would do anything for us.
"So to get a win over Iowa for coach Stoops, it would mean a lot to us. He works his butt off for us, and his coaching staff works as hard as they can for us. And to reward him with that win would be really big for us."
Kentucky boasts one of the more balanced offenses the Hawkeyes will have faced this season. It is one of only eight among Power 5 teams averaging at least 200 rushing yards and 225 passing yards per game. It's averaging 6.57 yards per play.
"They're definitely balanced," Iowa safety Kaevon Merriweather said. "They can hit you with any player at any point in time. You just have to really be on your Ps and Qs on what you're doing and what you're reading."
Quarterback Will Levis, a Penn State transfer, is familiar to the Hawkeyes. They were the first Power 5 school to offer him a scholarship and faced him in State College last season, a 41-21 Iowa victory.
Levis is completing 66.5 percent of his passes (2,593 yards, 23 touchdowns, 12 interceptions). He has 387 yards and nine scores rushing.
"He can put the ball on the money, get the ball to receivers, and then he can also escape the pocket," Merriweather said. "You never know when he's going to escape the pocket and get downfield. The play can break down and he can go for 20 or 30 yards."
Former Nebraska receiver Wan'Dale Robinson (94 catches, 1,164 yards, 7 touchdowns) is Levis' top target. Running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. (1,238 rushing yards, 8 touchdowns) keeps defenses honest. Kentucky utilizes an RPO scheme.
"There's some misdirection and they like to get clustered up like Kent State," Moss said. "It will be good for the backend to have really good eye discipline and being able to read pass (or) run, for sure."
Like Iowa, which allows only 19.2 points per game, the Wildcats are stingy on defense (22.1 PPG). Their 117.2 yards rushing allowed per game ranks 16th nationally, three spots behind the Hawkeyes (113.8).
"They play physical. They're big," Iowa center Tyler Linderbaum said. "At the end of the day, we're going to have to be ready to go."
Kentucky ranks 86th nationally in pass efficiency defense (139.6) with only six interceptions. The Hawkeyes are 117th in pass efficiency (111.6) offense. Iowa rates third in the country for turnover margin (1.00), while the Wildcats are 128 (-1.08).
From a special teams standpoint, Iowa is ranked second nationally in efficiency (71.6). Kentucky checks in at 88th (46.3). Wildcats punt returner Josh Ali, who averages 14.8 yards per return with one touchdown, is skipping the bowl.
"Playing against an SEC school, they're going to bring a lot of challenges," Hawkeye punter Tory Taylor said.
TV ANNOUNCERS: Dave Pasch, Dusty Dvoracek, Tom Luginbill on ABC.
SERIES: The Hawkeyes have never faced Kentucky in program history. Iowa is 6-5 all-time in bowl games against current Southeastern Conference opponents.
Kentucky is 29-37-4 all-time against current Big Ten members. UK last faced a Big Ten opponent in 2018 in the Citrus Bowl, defeating Penn State, 27-24.
BETTING LINES: The game opened with Iowa -1.5 points at Vegas Insiders (VI). Kentucky was listed as a 3.0-point pick as of Sunday morning. The total was at 44.0, down from a 45.0 open.
TRENDS
-Wildcats are 10-2 Against The Spread (AST) in their last 12 non-conference games.
-Kentucky is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 vs. Big Ten.
-Hawkeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
-Iowa is 5-2-1 ATS in its last 8 games as an underdog.
KENTUCKY PLAYERS TO WATCH
-Wan'Dale Robinson, WR – The Nebraska transfer caught nine passes for 75 yards and rushed six times for 42 when the Huskers played Iowa last season. The Kentucky native has excelled in his return home. He set a Wildcat program record with 94 receptions this fall. His 1,164 receiving yards are the second most in a season at UK.
-Josh Pascahl, DE – The senior All-American recorded 53 tackles (15.5 for loss), 5.5 sacks, eight quarterback hurries, a forced fumble and a blocked kick so far this season. He has a TFL in 10 of 12 games and at least one in eight contests in a row. His 37.0 tackles for loss in his career ranks tied for third at UK.
-Chris Rodriguez Jr., RB – The junior from Georgia has racked up 1,272 rushing yards in '21, ranking second in the SEC with 106.0 on the ground per game. Rodriguez Jr. has run for at least 100 yards in eight games this season. He has reached the century mark in four contests in a row coming into the Citrus Bowl.
KEYS TO VICTORY
Kentucky: Don't turn the ball over and pressure the quarterback.
Iowa: Create turnovers on defense and run the football effectively.
GAME NOTES
-The Cats will be looking to extend their non-conference winning streak to 16 games, which is tied with Iowa for the longest active streak in the country. Both programs have won three straight bowl games, tied for the third-longest active streak in FBS.
-Kentucky is returning to the Vrbo Citrus Bowl for the second time in the past four seasons, having defeated Penn State, 27-24, on Jan. 1, 2019 to cap a 10-win season
-Kentucky finished 5-3 in the SEC for second place in the SEC Eastern Division. It marks the first time since the league split into divisions in 1992 that UK ends the season in sole possession of second place of the East. UK also has finished in a tie for second in the division on two other occasions, 2016 and 2018
-Like Iowa, Kentucky opened the season 6-0. UK’s previous 6-0 starts include 1950 (10-0), 1910 (7-0), 1903 (7-0) and 1898 (7-0).
-UK’s 32 victories since the start of the 2018 season rank sixth-most in the SEC. Those 32 wins rank 16th among Power Five programs.
-Iowa has won 15 straight games against non-conference opponents, including 12 regular season non-conference victories and three bowl wins. The non-conference win streak is the longest in the country. Iowa’s last non-conference loss was at the 2017 Outback Bowl (Florida, 30-3).
-Iowa has three wins this season over ranked opponents (vs. #17 Indiana, 34-6; at #9 Iowa State, 27-17; vs. #4 Penn State, 23-20).
-Iowa is playing for a trophy this week for the sixth time this season. The Hawkeyes are 3-2 in trophy games this season and 25-6 in their last 31 trophy games (includes bowl games and conference championship games).
-Iowa leads the country with a school-record 24 interceptions and rank third nationally in takeaways (30). The Hawkeyes have 88 interceptions since 2017, more than any team in the country.
-Center Tyler Linderbaum is the 12th Hawkeye to earn unanimous consensus All-America status and the 28th Hawkeye to earn consensus All-America status. Iowa football has had a consensus All-American in three straight seasons for the first time in program history. Linderbaum is also the 2021 Rimington Trophy winner, which is awarded to the nation’s premier center in college football, and was also selected as the 2021 Big Ten Conference Rimington-Pace Offensive Lineman of the Year.
NOTABLE ALUMNI
Kentucky – Harry Dean Stanton
Iowa - Jewel Prestage
HOWE I SEE IT: The Citrus shapes up as an even matchup of two similarly built teams. Determining how the long layoff affects these teams would be difficult without seeing both prepare, so I won't try.
If Iowa's offense can carry some of the load here, the Hawkeyes enjoy an advantage on defense and special teams. As we saw in a 42-3, Big Ten Championship game loss against Michigan, that's a big if.
Iowa likely will need to win on defense and special teams. Luckily, it's shown it's capable of doing so throughout '21.
The Hawkeyes should set up Levis for some poor decisions if they can slow the Kentucky run. Iowa can benefit from a field-position advantage.
Hopefully the Hawkeyes' offensive plan includes wrinkles and unpredictability. That shouldn't be hard to do with a month to prepare and a season's worth of evidence that not doing so can blow up in your face.
PREDICTION: IOWA 24, Kentucky 20
