ESPN FPI: What More Do the Iowa Hawkeyes Have To Do for Respect?

At some point, we have to question the metrics and data that some of the ranking systems are using. The numbers tell a story, but it is becoming more and more clear that they do not paint full picture.

ESPN's latest FPI update is doing just that. It is a culprit of using only data and numbers to analyze teams, which is evident in the ranking given to the Iowa Hawkeyes, despite a 4-0 start that includes a win on the road over Michigan.

ESPN FPI begrudgingly ranks the Iowa Hawkeyes

Iowa did climb in this week's ESPN FPI, but almost by a comically small amount. Iowa, which was on the outside of the top 25 last week, moved to No. 25 this week. The Hawkeyes remain two spots behind, wait for it... Michigan. The team they just beat.

This is normally where I would ask for someone to make it make sense, but it's college football. It's never, ever going to make sense.

ESPN FPI Predictions for Iowa Football

This week saw some serious movement in Iowa's projections for the rest of the season. Iowa's projected win total went up from 8.1 to 8.7, which is a huge jump. Iowa also essentially locked in a bowl bid, or as close as you can get at this point, as well.

The number jumping off the page is Iowa's chances of making the College Football Playoff. It nearly doubled after beating Michigan. It has gone from a dream to a real conversation, with Iowa carrying a roughly one-in-four chance of finally crashing the dance.

Projected Record: 8.7 - 3.4

Chance to Win Out: 0.8%

Chance to Make a Bowl Game: 98.4%

Chance to Win the Big Ten: 3.1%

Chance to Make the College Football Playoff: 22.9%

Chance to Make the National Championship: 1.1%

Chance to Win the National Championship: 0.4%

Riley Donald's Quick Thoughts

This win is starting to force the issue of looking at the Iowa Hawkeyes in a different light. Last year, Iowa came up short time and time again against good teams. This year, it has two Power Four wins that saw late-game winners.

Is that water finding its level? Is it Iowa learning how to win? It's probably a mixture of both. But suddenly, Iowa's schedule and the possibility of making the College Football Playoff look more and more realistic each passing week.

Ohio State awaits. Go win that one, Iowa, and there are no dreams too big this season.

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