Hawkeyes Labeled Dangerous Wildcard in College Football Playoff Race

If Iowa's offense makes a necessary leap, the Hawkeyes could play a massive spoiler role in the 2025 College Football Playoff picture.

Nov 11, 2023; Iowa City, Iowa, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes head coach Kirk Ferentz reacts during the fourth quarter against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Kinnick Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images | Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

The Hawkeyes struggled in the first season of the new-look Big Ten, though an elite defense and rushing attack were enough to squeeze out an 8-5 record and a trip to the Music City Bowl. But with a shiny new quarterback in Mark Gronowski and a second season with offensive coordinator Tim Lester controlling the offense, Iowa is looking to take the next step back up the Big Ten mountain.

On3’s Ari Wasserman projected which teams from the Big Ten and SEC could be most disruptive of the College Football Playoff picture this season and included Iowa, largely thanks to that shiny new quarterback.

“The Hawkeyes have a chance at a semi-explosive offense with a healthy Gronowski at the helm,” Wasserman wrote. “It’s a borderline lock that the Hawkeyes will have an elite defense. Dare to dream.”

Hawkeyes Hope to Do More Than Just Disrupt

The Hawkeyes' real dream would be to find a way into the playoffs for the first time, rather than to just be disruptive to the teams most likely to earn a spot. But the path to doing either won’t be easy with the Hawkeyes facing the country’s 32nd-toughest schedule.

Iowa hosts two playoff teams from last year, which happened to be the representatives in the Big Ten Championship, Oregon and Penn State. Both are favorites to head back to the CFP this year.

Meanwhile, Iowa State was just one game away from claiming a spot in the bracket, and teams like Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Nebraska are all looking to make a similar leap in the conference that Iowa is eyeing. A trip to Los Angeles for a date with the USC Trojans late in the year will be a hefty challenge as well.

ESPN’s FPI data predicts Iowa will win just six games despite the upgrade at quarterback and the likelihood that Iowa’s defense reloads as it usually does. With Iowa’s promising outlook in-house, it’s not out of the question for Iowa to squeak out a few upset wins or take the W in tighter matchups against rivals like Iowa State, Wisconsin, and Nebraska.

Derailing Oregon and Penn State, even with home-field advantage, is a taller task. Doing so, however, wouldn’t just make Iowa a CFP disruptor, but a contender.