Preview, Prediction: Iowa-Illinois Football

IOWA CITY, Iowa - Last week, upstart Illinois overwhelmed Big Ten West Division preseason favorite Wisconsin in Madison. The Illini held the Badgers to two rushing yards in a 34-10 thumping.

Saturday, Illinois plays host to the defending West champs, Iowa. The Illini can show the country that what happened in Wisconsin wasn't a fluke.

"We came here to be ranked. We came here to win championships," former Hawkeye and current Illinois coach Bret Bielema said Monday. "Until we win more consistently over the course of time, that's the fight that I'm always trying to get through."

Iowa (3-2 overall, 1-1 Big Ten) is attempting to rebound from a 27-14 home loss to No. 4 Michigan last week. A bye arrives next week and then a trip to No. 3 Ohio State. A setback Saturday could sink the Hawkeyes' pursuit of repeating in the West.

Points might be at a premium at Memorial Stadium in Champaign. The Illini (4-1, 1-1) lead the Big Ten in scoring defense (8.4 PPG) while Iowa ranks third (10.0). Illinois is yielding the second fewest yards (229.2) and the Hawkeyes rank fourth (254.4).

The Illini do two things well that usually sets you up for success in the West. It runs the ball effectively (194.6 yards per game) and stops the run (70.2), which leads the conference. Iowa does one of those things well, yielding just 92.8 on the ground, but it ranks last among league programs in rushing (88.2).

Syracuse transfer Tommy Devito is in his first season as the Illini's starting quarterback. He's completing 69.9 percent of his passes with nine touchdowns and two interceptions.

Running back Chase Brown is the motor that powers the Illinois offense. His 146.6 yards per game on the ground paces the Big Ten.

Former quarterback Isaiah Williams leads the Illini with 35 catches as a receiver. Pat Bryant is averaging 17.4 yards on his 18 receptions.

Illinois boasts playmakers on all levels of its stingy defense.

Defensive tackles Jer'Zhan "Johnny" Newton and Keith Randolph Jr.'s 40 combined quarterback pressures are the most in the country among any interior defensive line tandem. Free safety Kendall Smith ranks fifth in the nation in interceptions with three, one back of the national lead, and tied for the Big Ten lead. Cornerback Jatavius Martin has a pass breakup in six straight games dating back to last season.

The Illini play aggressively, sending a lot of run blitzes at the opponent. That could open up big plays for the Hawkeyes if they pick them up.

"It comes down to the fundamentals, setting up the blocks and making sure we hit the hole hard," Iowa running back Leshon Williams said. "And if it's one man, we've got to beat him. If they're run blitzing like that, there's not another level back there. So if we get it, it could be a long one."

Defenses have slowed down Hawkeye receiver Arland Bruce IV in recent weeks. He started the season strong, and they've adjusted, following him more with one defender when he goes in motion instead of handing him off to a teammate.

Now, he has to counter.

"I just have to be better than them," he said.

The Hawkeyes believe they're making progress offensively as the inexperienced offensive line develops and skill players become healthy. That perceived progress will be tested Saturday.

"None of our issues are lack of effort," Iowa quarterback Spencer Petras said. "The analogy I like to use is if you're at bat in baseball, squeezing the hell out of the bat as hard as you can isn't going to help you hit the ball. You're just going to swing too hard and miss it.

"You have to have a great sense of urgency. You have to be completely focused. But at the end of the day, you can't try too hard because the results won't go the way you want if you are."

TV ANNOUNCERS: Cory Provus, Jake Butt and Elise Menaker on BTN.

SERIES: Saturday will be the 78th meeting between Iowa and Illinois. Iowa trails the all-time series, 37-38-2, but the Hawkeyes have won 16 of the last 19 meetings, 13 of the last 14, and eight in a row.

During the eight-game winning streak, Iowa has won by an average of 22.4 points. Iowa’s eight-game winning streak is the longest in the series since Illinois won 12 straight from 1942-67.

Illinois’ last win in the series was a 27-24 victory in Champaign in 2008.

BETTING LINES: Iowa opened as a 4.5-point underdog in the Vegas Insider consensus Sunday night. It dropped to the Hawkeyes +4.0 by Monday morning. The total opened at 35.0 and rose to 36.0 by Monday morning.

TRENDS

-Illinois is 7-1 Against The Spread (ATS) in its last 8 games overall.

-Under is 9-1 in Fighting Illini last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.

-Iowa is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 road games.

-Under is 5-1 in Hawkeyes last 6 games overall.

ILLINOIS PLAYERS TO WATCH

-Chase Brown, RB – Brown is the nation's leading rusher with 733 yards. He leads the nation in rushes of 10+ yards (25), six more than any other player. He is tied for fourth in 20+ yard runs (7) and tied for second in 30+ yard runs (4). He is the first Illini ever to rush for 100+ yards in six straight games.

-Jer'Zhan "Johnny" Newton, DT – Newton is the No. 2 graded interior defensive lineman in the nation by PFF. He leads the nation in QB hits with 12 and is tied for the national lead in QB pressures with 28, both according to PFF.

-Keith Randolph Jr., DT – Randolph leads the Illini in total tackles (27.0), tackles for loss (6.5) and is tied with Newton for the team lead in sacks (3.0). He's added two quarterback hurries and an interception.

KEYS TO VICTORY

Illinois: Start fast, establish run and avoid helping Hawkeye offense by turning the ball over to it.

Iowa: Hold up better against the run than it did versus Michigan and throw the ball down the field.

GAME NOTES

-Illinois' 42 points allowed are its fewest through five games since 1950.

-Illinois is hosting its "Hail to the Orange Out!" promotion. Fans are encouraged to wear orange.

-Six different Illini have an interception this season, tied for the sixth-most in the nation.

-Nine different Illini have a sack this season, tied for the fifth-most in the nation.

-Illinois is seventh in the nation in time of possession (34:43). Illinois has held the ball for 10+ minutes in every fourth quarter this season.

-Over the past two games, Iowa’s tight ends have combined for 15 catches for 222 yards and one touchdown. In the two games, TE Sam LaPorta has nine catches for 101 yards and TE Luke Lachey has six catches for 121 yards and his first career touchdown (vs. Michigan).

-Eight different Hawkeyes have tallied a sack during the 2022 season. Iowa has 13 sacks on the year, averaging 2.60 per game to rank third in the Big Ten and 33rd nationally. DL Lukas Van Ness has a team-high three sacks.

-Iowa’s defense ranks third nationally in scoring defense (10.0), fifth in defensive TDs (2), sixth in team passing efficiency defense (98.66), seventh in total defense (254.4), 12th in passing yards allowed (161.6), 13th in rushing defense (92.8), and 21st in red zone defense (.727).

-True freshman RB Kaleb Johnson is leading Iowa with 206 rushing yards, averaging 5.0 yards on 41 attempts. He has three touchdowns – tops on the team. The Hamilton, Ohio, native is also leading the team, averaging 64.4 all-purpose yards per game.

-LB Jack Campbell is 10 tackles shy of moving into the top 40 in Hawkeye history in career tackles. The Cedar Falls, Iowa, native currently ranks 52nd all-time with 227 stops, three behind former Hawkeye Bob Stoops.

NOTABLE ALUMNI

Illinois – Betsy Brandt

Iowa - Evan Lindquist

HOWE I SEE IT: You could have made a lot of money betting people before the season that Illinois would be favored in this game. The Illini has dropped eight in a row to its rival to the west.

But here we are. Iowa is coming off a discouraging 27-14 loss to No. 4 Michigan and sits at 3-2. Illinois (4-1) is riding high after a 34-10 win at Wisconsin.

Be careful putting too much stock in either result. The Hawkeyes aren't in a place offensively to compete with the nation's top teams. And while the Illini deserves credit for beating down the Badgers, Wisconsin is a mess right now.

That said, Iowa needed Charlie Jones' heroics last season to beat Illinois at home. The Hawkeyes overcame an early deficit for a 34-21 victory in Champaign two seasons ago.

I would expect a close game, the teams perhaps separated by one score in the fourth quarter. Iowa will be locked in and motivated after last week's performance, and the Illini a little flat coming off Saturday's high in Madison.

PREDICTION: IOWA 16, Illinois 13