Preview, Prediction: Iowa-Wisconsin

IOWA CITY, Iowa - Iowa-Wisconsin Football 2023 shapes up like plenty of previous editions in this series. Saturday's game in Madison will play a significant role in how the final West was won.

We can't quite say it will decide the division with more than half of the conference slate to play. It'd be surprising if either of these teams fell out of the race, however. So, Saturday's winner surely could win a tiebreaker against the other in the end.

Bettors have favored Wisconsin as of Wednesday night. Nugget: Iowa has failed to cover the spread in nine of its last 10 October games as an underdog (Bet Rivers). The Hawkeyes have won two of the last three meetings in the series after losing seven of the previous eight contests.

With the Big Ten dissolving divisions beginning next season, Iowa and Wisconsin competing for the Heartland Trophy likely won't impact who plays in the Big Ten title game as much as it has in the past. Their mutual dislike for each other as rivals will remain. Saturday will feed it.

Wisconsin enters action at 2-0 in the league, while the Hawkeyes sit at 1-1. Both teams have wins against Purdue. The Badgers also own a victory against Rutgers, while Iowa has a 31-0 loss to No. 6 Penn State on its resume.

A new system that arrived with head coach Luke Fickell and his staff from Cincinnati looks to be coming together for Wisconsin. Quarterback Tanner Mordecai has likewise settled in. The transfer from SMU and his teammates appeared disconnected during a 31-22 setback at No. 19 Washington State in Week 2.

"Coach Fickell did a great job at Cincinnati and they've done a great job (at Wisconsin) so far," Iowa left offensive tackle Mason Richman said. "Offensively and defensively they're a little bit different, but they're still a good, physical football team.

"In film we've seen that they're definitely a three-down (defensive line) team. They definitely can go to four-down, too. We feel like they haven't faced a bigger team or maybe a team that goes as many tight end and fullback as we do up to this point, but we're sure they're going to be ready for it."

The Badgers aren't rebuilding, which so often happens after a coaching change. Fickell and gang are attempting to marry their system with the one already at Wisconsin. It's an interesting, and so far successful approach.

The O-Line still is comprised of really large humans. The running back, Braelon Allen, is a star. The defense still transforms like an amoeba to confuse offenses.

Fickell has a history with the Hawkeyes from his time at Ohio State. He knows the Iowa staff and it knows him.

"I'm excited. I've played against Iowa a lot and coached against Iowa a lot," he said this week.

"Iowa still is who Iowa is. They're very good at running the football. They're very good at disguising things. In some ways, I think the last two weeks they're getting back to being who Iowa has been and what has made them really good."

The game once again features two of the country's better defenses. The Hawkeyes rank 17th out of 130 FBS programs in scoring defense (16.3 PPG), while Wisconsin comes in at No. 26 (18.4). That's probably why the over-under point total installed by oddsmakers is a tad low.

In addition to what we anticipate is riding on Saturday's outcome, the other main story line is quarterback Deacon Hill's first college road start being against the program he left. The Californian native has nothing but positive things to say publicly about his former Badger mates, but he'd love nothing more than to ruin Madison's weekend.

"I'm excited to see guys but I've been trying to focus on my team here and what we need to do to prepare," Hill said on Tuesday.

Iowa and Hill are hoping his second college start is more productive for him. The running game clicked at times during last week's victory against Purdue, but the passing game was 6 of 21 for 110 yards and a touchdown with an interception.

The game could come down to which team can find some success through the air. Both squads are stingy against the run, although the Hawkeyes have been more generous in that aspect than is their norm.

Mordecai's running ability adds another element for which Iowa must prepare. The Hawkeyes will look to keep him corralled and make him throw it.

The forecast for Saturday was calling for showers with temperatures in the 50s at kickoff (3 p.m. CT). That could add intrigue.

TV ANNOUNCERS: Jason Benetti, Brock Huard and Allison Williams on FOX.

SERIES: Saturday will be the 97th meeting between Iowa and Wisconsin in a series that began in 1894. Wisconsin leads 49-45-2, and Iowa is 19-29-1 all-time in games played in Madison.

The Hawkeyes have won two of the last three meetings against Wisconsin, winning 28-7 in 2020 and 24-10 in 2022. Both games were played in Iowa City. • Iowa’s last victory in Madison came in 2015 – winning, 10-6.

BETTING LINES: Iowa showed up as a 10.0-point underdog at Bet Rivers on Wednesday evening. The total sat at 34.5. The Hawkeyes were +285 and Wisconsin -375 to win.

TRENDS

-Iowa is 8-3-1 Against The Spread (ATS) in its last 12 games.

-The total has gone Under in five of Iowa's last six games when playing on the road against Wisconsin.

-Wisconsin is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games.

-The total has gone Under in seven of the Badgers' last 10 games.

WISCONSIN PLAYERS TO WATCH

-Ricardo Hallman, CB - Hallman leads the Big Ten and is one of six players nationally with four interceptions. He has picked off passes in three consecutive games including a 95-yard Pick-6 last week against Rutgers. His 89.3 PFF game grade was the highest of any FBS CB in Week 6.

-Braelon Allen, RB - The junior sits at 2,982 career rushing yards, the second most of any active Power Five (P5) running back. Allen’s 18 100-yard games are also the most of any active P5 tailback. In each of the Badgers’ last 19 wins, dating back to early '21, Allen has run for 80+ yards. Allen has gone over 100 yards rushing in 16 of those 19 wins.

-Hunter Wohler, S - Wohler leads the Badgers in tackles and has collected 10+ in three straight games to begin the season, becoming the first UW defender to do so since Leo Chenal in '21. Wohler leads the Badgers and ranks second in the Big Ten with 10.0 tackles per game this season. Wholer’s 6.8 solo tackles per game are more than any other P5 defender

KEYS TO VICTORY

Wisconsin: Make Iowa's offense beat you. It's much easier said than done.

Iowa: The offense protects the ball and leans on the defense and special teams. It's working again.

GAME NOTES

-Wisconsin has won 26 of its last 32 games with a traveling trophy on the line - vs. Iowa (Heartland Trophy), Minnesota (Paul Bunyan’s Axe) and Nebraska (Freedom Trophy).

-Wisconsin holds a 56-22 (.717) record in regular season conference play since the Big Ten went to its current format in 2014. Only Ohio State owns a higher winning percentage in the Big Ten over that span. Wisconsin is 41-12 (.774) vs. the Big Ten West since 2014, good for the best mark of any of its West counterparts.

-Wisconsin has converted 21 times on third down over the last 2 games. Wisconsin’s 21-for-35 (60%) clip during conference play this season is the highest in Power 5 football.

-After the Badgers’ win over Oklahoma State in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl, Wisconsin has played in a bowl game in each of the last 21 seasons, the longest active streak in the Big Ten and the third-longest in FBS football.

-Among Big Ten teams, only Wisconsin (21) Ohio State (11) and Iowa (10) have active bowl streaks of 10 or more seasons

-The Hawkeyes have allowed 14 or fewer points in 12 of their last 19 games. Iowa has held six teams without a touchdown since the start of the 2022 season and the unit has allowed one touchdown or less in four of the first six games of 2023 and in 13 of the last 19 games.

-The Hawkeyes have seven interceptions through five weeks of the season, including Sebastian Castro’s 30-yard pick-six in the road win at Iowa State. The interception return for a touchdown extended Iowa’s streak to 16 consecutive seasons (and 21 of the last 23 years). It is the second-longest active streak nationally

-Since the start of the 2015 season, Iowa is 68-2 when leading by eight points at any point in a game.

-The Hawkeyes are playing their second trophy game of the 2023 season when the Heartland Trophy is on the line on Saturday in Madison. Iowa is 25-8 in its last 33 rivalry trophy games against Iowa State, Minnesota, Nebraska and Wisconsin.

-Four Hawkeyes – DB Sebastian Castro, DB Cooper DeJean, LB Nick Jackson and P Tory Taylor – have earned Big Ten Conference weekly recognition this season.

NOTABLE ALUMNI

Wisconsin - Allee Willis

Iowa - Joey Kirkpatrick

HOWE I SEE IT: Rain in the forecast seems appropriate with Iowa and Wisconsin meeting for the last time as Big Ten West mates. Precipitation also could make this one more interesting.

These teams appear to be on a similar level with the evidence we have to date. They're below Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State in the Big Ten, falling into the second group with Maryland. There's a big gap between those two trios.

To me, this game comes down to which team takes advantage of the other one's mistakes. Mostly that means Iowa's offense can't be its undoing.

I give Wisconsin the edge because it's at home and has an offense with a pulse. I think the Hawkeyes hang around because their defense will be the best unit on the field.

PREDICTION: Wisconsin 22, IOWA 13