Nov 5, 2022; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers running back Braelon Allen (0) rushes with the football during the fourth quarter against the Maryland Terrapins at Camp Randall Stadium. (Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports)
Preview, Prediction: Iowa-Wisconsin Football
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IOWA CITY, Iowa - A few weeks ago, it looked like Big Ten West Division preseason favorites Iowa and Wisconsin could be headed for unusually disappointing campaigns. The programs have since turned things around.
The Hawkeyes (5-4 overall, 3-3 Big Ten) have won two games in a row after dropping three consecutive contests. The Badgers (5-4, 3-3) have triumphed in three of their last four outings.
The rivals will meet up Saturday for their annual Heartland Trophy game at Kinnick Stadium (2:30 pm CT, FS1). The winner keeps its West championship hopes alive. They sit a game behind first-place Illinois, which owns wins against Iowa and Wisconsin.
"I always love playing at their place, great atmosphere," Wisconsin interim head coach Jim Leonhard said Monday. "We know what they're about, and they know what we're about. So, it's going to be a really exciting day."
The Badgers have topped Purdue and Maryland at home the last two weeks. The Hawkeyes took care of Northwestern at home and prevailed at Purdue during that time.
This matchup sets up as a defensive battle. Iowa ranks fourth among league teams in scoring defense (14.3 Points Per Game), while Wisconsin shows up sixth (20.6 PPG). They're both in the Top 6 against the rush as well.
"I feel like every year the battle is always won up front," Hawkeye defensive tackle Noah Shannon said. "So whoever dominates the line of scrimmage I feel like is going to come out victorious on Saturday."
Badger quarterback Graham Mertz is struggling with consistency again this season. He's averaging 189.7 passing yards per game with 17 scoring throws and six interceptions. He's coming off 5-of-17, 77-yard performance against Maryland last Saturday.
"He's a veteran quarterback now. He's had a lot of snaps, a lot of experience," Iowa linebacker Jack Campbell said. "He's gotten better in the pocket. They're doing some different things with him to try to get out of the pocket. He's a pretty mobile quarterback. It allows him to make plays with his legs if it's there."
Wisconsin again leans heavily on a star running back. Sophomore Braelon Allen is averaging 109.9 ground yards per game, fourth in the conference. He's complemented in ball carrying by Isaac Guerendo (31.1) and Chez Mellusi (37.2), the latter missing the last three contests with a wrist injury.
Chimere Dike has emerged as a go-to receiver for the Badgers. He came into this week ranked eighth in the Big Ten with 61.7 receiving yards per game. He's caught six touchdowns and averaged 15.9 yards per catch.
Defensively, outside linebacker Nick Herbig paces the league with 12.5 tackles for loss and 8.0 sacks. Safety John Torchio leads the Big Ten with five interceptions, two of which were returned for touchdowns, and also has five pass breakups. Inside linebacker Maema Njongmeta leads the squad with 60 total tackles.
Wisconsin disguises its pressure well. The Hawkeyes need to identify from where the rush is coming.
"The biggest challenge is that we're all on the same page," Iowa offensive lineman Mason Richman said. "They can bring boundary stuff, field stuff, all sorts of linebackers. They line up in different things. Based on personnel, they run a couple of different things."
Wisconsin surprised people outside the program by firing head coach Paul Chryst in early October after a 2-3 start to the season. His defensive coordinator, Leonhard, stepped in for his audition for the full-time job.
A win at Iowa certainly would help Leonhard in his pursuit of being the program's next head coach. Like Chryst, he's an alumnus of the program.
The Hawkeyes and Wisconsin both have experienced uncharacteristic struggles with their offensive lines this season. Each group has played better in recent weeks, and the unit that takes another step forward Saturday could be the difference in this game.
"There are things that they want to clean up. We need to play better in certain areas," Leonhard said of his offensive front. "But you saw the physicality of that group (against Maryland). We love that combination of guys. Hopefully we're able to build going into the last stretch of the season."
After languishing near the bottom of many national offensive categories, Iowa has responded with 57 points the last two weeks. That said, the Northwestern and Purdue defenses were not on the level of Wisconsin.
And that's OK with Hawkeye quarterback Spencer Petras.
"What a great challenge," he said. "You can't ask for much more, playing a really good defense. It's going to be in front of a great crowd at home. It will be fun."
TV ANNOUNCERS: Jeff Levering and Petros Papadakis on FS1.
SERIES: Saturday will be the 96th meeting between Iowa and Wisconsin. Through 95 games, Wisconsin leads 49-44-2.
Iowa is 25-20-1 all-time in games played in Iowa City. Iowa is 19-29-1 all-time in games played in Madison.
The Hawkeyes snapped a five-game losing skid against the Badgers in 2020, winning 28-7 in Iowa City before Wisconsin was victorious, 27-7, last season in Madison.
The Badgers have won four of the last five meetings inside Kinnick Stadium.
BETTING LINES: Iowa opened as a 1.5-point favorite in the Vegas Insider consensus Sunday night. It remained there on Monday afternoon. The total opened at 35.5 and moved to 36.5 by Monday afternoon.
TRENDS
-Wisconsin is 2-5 Against The Spread (ATS) vs. a team with a winning record.
-Over is 6-1 in Badgers' last 7 games overall.
-Iowa is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games overall.
-Under is 4-1 in Hawkeyes' last 5 home games.
WISCONSIN PLAYERS TO WATCH
-Braelon Allen, RB – Heading into Wisconsin’s matchup with Iowa, Allen needs 11 yards to reach 1,000 rushing yards this season. Allen would be the 5th Badger RB to record 1,000-yard outputs in both his freshman and sophomore seasons.
-Nick Herbig, LB – Herbig has started 28 games in his Badger career, recording 33.0 tackles for loss and 18.0 sacks. Herbig pushed his total to 8.0 sacks with a pair vs. Maryland. Herbig has recorded a TFL in all but one game during 2022 and has sacks in 6 of 8 games played.
-John Torchio, S – A Bednarik Award semifinalist, Torchio earned Big Ten Defensive POW honors on Oct. 24 after recording a pair of INTs vs. Purdue, including a 1st-quarter pick-6. Torchio has 5 INTs this season, which ranks T-1st in the nation and the most for a Badger since Leo Musso recorded 5 in 2016.
KEYS TO VICTORY
Wisconsin: Run the ball effectively against a stingy defense.
Iowa: Offense continues contributing like last two weeks.
GAME NOTES
-The Badgers have enjoyed November in recent seasons, posting a 39-8 (.830) record in the month since 2010. Among Power 5 schools, only Ohio State (.870), Georgia (.860), and Oklahoma (.837) have totaled better records in the month since 2010.
-Wisconsin’s +6 turnover margin ranks T-3rd in the Big Ten and T-24th in the nation. The Badgers’ 0.67 margin/game is their best since 2016 (0.86).
-Wisconsin has played in a bowl game for the last 20 consecutive seasons, the longest active streak in the Big Ten and the third-longest in the FBS
-The Badgers have scored first in 7 of 9 games this season and have entered the second quarter tied or leading in 8 of 9 contests. Wisconsin has outscored opponents 80-10 in the first half under Jim Leonhard (last 4 games).
-The Badgers are 53-20 (.726) in conference play over the last 9 seasons (2014-22), since the Big Ten went to its current divisional alignment. Only Ohio State (66-5, .930) has a better league record over that span.
-Iowa’s defense has allowed three or fewer points in three games this season – the most since 2019. The Hawkeyes have a 14.3 scoring average this season, which is fifth nationally.
-During its two-game winning streak, Iowa’s offense is averaging 28.5 points and 387 yards total offense. The Hawkeye rushing attack has churned out 181 yards per game, while QB Spencer Petras is 34-of-53 for 412 yards and three touchdowns.
-Saturday begins the first of three straight trophy games to close out the regular season. The Hawkeyes are 22-7 in their last 29 rivalry games against Iowa State, Minnesota, Nebraska and Wisconsin.
-Iowa hasn’t committed a turnover in two straight games and in five of its nine games this season. The Hawkeyes are 4-1 this season when they don’t commit a turnover.
-The Hawkeyes rank third nationally in total defense, surrendering 264.4 yards per game. Iowa has held all nine opponents under their season average in total offense and eight of its nine opponents below their season scoring average.
NOTABLE ALUMNI
Wisconsin – Zola Jesus
Iowa - Baulu Kuan
HOWE I SEE IT: As Leonhard mentioned in the opening of this piece, these teams know each other well enough that there are few secrets. While there may be wrinkles, the identities are clear.
Iowa's defense will be the best unit on the field Saturday. That group continues improving and is playing as good as anyone in the country.
The Hawkeye offense will face a much tougher challenge than it has the last two weeks. It's a matter of taking care of the football, and relying on the defense, Tory Taylor and Drew Stevens.
I think that happens.
PREDICTION: Iowa 16, Wisconsin 13
