ESPN Matchup Predictor Forecasts Kansas vs Houston Basketball Matchup

Kansas will open tonight's matchup against Houston as a home underdog for the fourth time this season. The program is 4-1 all-time when a Bill Self Jayhawks team is not favored inside Allen Fieldhouse.

Both top-10 teams will be looking to get back into the win column after their home losses on Saturday. KU was unexpectedly upset by a subpar Cincinnati team by 16 points, while UH lost its second straight in a pivotal showdown with Arizona that dropped it to second in the Big 12 standings.

A lot of feats will be on the line today, such as Self's perfect record at home on Big Mondays and KU never having lost consecutive games in the Phog since 1989. But which team does the ESPN Matchup Predictor favor? Here's what the computer model projects ahead of the contest.

Houston at Kansas: ESPN Matchup Predictor Gives Prediction

Like most sportsbooks, the Matchup Predictor echoes the sentiment that Houston is the favorite in this game. It gives the Cougars a near three-fifths chance of coming out victorious.

Kansas Jayhawks head coach Bill Self reacts to a play against Arizona Wildcats during the game inside Allen Fieldhouse on Feb. 9, 2026. | Evert Nelson/The Capital-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances at Victory: Houston 59.8%, Kansas 40.2%.

Kansas On SI's Take

It isn't surprising that ESPN's computer model favors Houston, considering sportsbooks are as well. Everyone remembers when the Cougars took down the Jayhawks in AFH last year in a double-overtime nail-biter.

Even with Self's dominance at home during his tenure, there are some concerns about this Kansas team that must be addressed. In addition to losing two of its last three contests, it has yet to fully resolve the injury dilemma surrounding freshman phenom Darryn Peterson, who has been in and out of the lineup with a lingering cramping ailment.

Freshman guard Kingston Flemings has led the way for UH this season, averaging 16.6 points and 5.2 assists while rivaling Peterson as one of the nation's most talented freshmen. Veterans like Emmanuel Sharp (16.4 PPG, 3.0 RPG) and Milos Uzan (11.1 PPG, 4.1 APG) also play a crucial role on Kelvin Sampson's squad.

As talented as the Cougars are, they are reeling a bit after an uncommon two-loss week. Things won't get easier for them when they have to travel to one of the best home courts in the country nearly 48 hours since their loss to Arizona.

It feels wrong for the Jayhawks to ever be labeled as an underdog in the legendary environment that is Allen Fieldhouse. The computer model should favor KU, or call it an even draw at the very least. Regardless, the team will look to prove it wrong tonight with a much-needed bounce-back performance.