ESPN Matchup Predictor Forecasts Winner of Kansas vs St. John’s Game

After taking down Cal Baptist in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, Kansas and St. John's are set to compete for a spot in the Sweet 16 tomorrow in a legendary coaching matchup between Bill Self and Rick Pitino. The Jayhawks have not made it out of the first weekend of March since 2022.

While KU is the higher-seeded team in this contest, St. John's opened as the betting favorite. The Johnnies have been incredible as of late, winning 20 of their past 21 games, including a pair of victories over UConn.

SJU is extremely hot right now, but is it the right call for them to be favored over a Kansas team that has one of the most talented starting lineups in the country? Here's what the ESPN Matchup Predictor is forecasting before tomorrow's tip-off.

St. John's vs Kansas: ESPN Matchup Predictor Gives Prediction

The Matchup Predictor gives the Jayhawks decent odds going into the contest, with a little over two-fifths chance to come out victorious. Either way, they are entering this game as the clear underdog according to the computer model.

Mar 20, 2026; San Diego, CA, USA; Kansas Jayhawks guard Elmarko Jackson (13) controls the ball against California Baptist Lancers guard Miles Daniels (5) in the second half during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Viejas Arena. Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images | Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances at Victory: St. John's 57.1%, Kansas 42.9%.

Kansas On SI's Take

There isn't much difference between sportsbooks and what the Matchup Predictor is forecasting. Kansas' moneyline odds on FanDuel sit at +128, while St. John's is at -154.

There are plenty of reasons to be concerned about this Red Storm team, as they boast a top-10 defense in the country and have been playing much better offense as of late. Their leading scorer, Zuby Ejiofor, played at Kansas during his freshman year and will undoubtedly be looking for a revenge game tomorrow.

The Jayhawks led by as many as 26 over CBU yesterday, but some of their flaws surfaced during the second half. The lead was cut all the way down to six points in a near comeback that left the Jayhawk faithful biting their nails down the stretch.

Every time this Kansas team appears to be trending upward, it hits some type of wall that leaves fans questioning its ceiling. They've proven that on their best night, they can compete with anybody in the country, but a recent rough patch has created even more question marks.

KU will need strong performances from its role players, but the ultimate X-factor will be star freshman Darryn Peterson. The 19-year-old phenom posted a 28-point outing in his NCAA Tournament debut, knocking down a flurry of tough jump shots in the second half.

The Matchup Predictor may favor St. John's, but this game is about as much of a toss-up as it gets. Both teams have a similar makeup and their own strengths and flaws, making this one of the best and most evenly matched games of the tournament so far.