Kansas at Houston Basketball Preview
The regular season comes to a close Saturday and the Kansas Jayhawks get to send it off with one of the most difficult tasks in the nation: trying to win in Houston against the Cougars.
Opponent Overview
Team: Houston
Record: 27-3
KenPom: 1
Line: TBD (KenPom projects Houston -10)
Team Form
Houston carries one of the longest winning streaks in the country at eight games. In fact, the Cougars have not lost since the KU game in Allen Fieldhouse and that is Houston’s only loss in the past 14 games. It hasn’t always been easy. Houston had to outlast Baylor in overtime in Waco and required a last-second shot to beat Oklahoma in Norman last Saturday. All three of Houston’s losses this year have come on the road and what’s crazy is that only two Big 12 teams have kept the margin to single digits in Houston this year (Iowa State and Cincinnati by eight).
Players to Watch
Jamal Shead is an All-American candidate, is in the top 10 of KenPom’s Player of the Year rankings, and is the undisputed leader of the team. KU was able to hold him to just seven points on 2-9 shooting from the field, which was the lowest scoring total of the Big 12 season for Shead, though he did dish out nine assists.
LJ Cryer is the Cougars’ leading scorer and can get red hot from deep, as KU saw first hand when he went scorched-Earth in the second half in Allen Fieldhouse on his way to a game-high 24 points on 6-12 from three. Cryer had a rough start to conference play but has been red hot of late, scoring 22 and 23 respectively against Cincinnati and Oklahoma while shooting 40% or better from three in both of those games. Cryer has six 20-point games in conference play and has hit four or more triples in each of those games.
Inside, J’Wan Roberts only scored 11 points on 5-11 shooting in the first matchup but he dominated Kansas on the glass, grabbing seven offensive rebounds (which was more than KU had as a team) and 13 boards total. Roberts is in the top 150 nationally in offensive rebounding percentage and effective field-goal percentage.
Matchups to Watch
Houston has the No. 1 two-point defense in the Big 12 and fifth best in the country, and yet Kansas shot 78% from two in Allen Fieldhouse (25-32). There’s little chance that efficiency continues. Instead, the question will be if Kansas can shoot at least 50% from two. And then it will need to hit 5-6 threes like it did in the first meeting.
On the other end, Houston is not the best two-point shooting team – in the bottom four in the conference in that category – and the Jayhawks were able to hold Houston to 40% (16-40) from two.
We know how tentious Houston’s defense is, especially when it comes to turning teams over. Kansas gave it away 18 times to just three turnovers for Houston, and only survived because of the on-fire shooting. The Jayhawks will need to stay under 15 turnovers and then get opportunities back by getting to the free-throw line. Houston is near the top of the Big 12 at sending opponents to the line – due to the aggressive nature of its defense – and doesn’t get there that often themselves. Kansas will need to excel in two of the three areas – two-point shooting, three-point shooting, and free-throw attempts – and keep the turnovers manageable.
Prediction
Kansas actually matches up pretty well with this Houston team. And as we’ve seen, the Jayhawks can beat the best of the best. But the Cougars are going to be hungry for revenge and I don’t see how they lose on their senior night where Shead, Cryer, and Roberts will all be honored, among others. I think Houston gets revenge and these two teams split the season series.
Houston 71, Kansas 64
Record ATS: 15-15
Record Straight Up: 23-7
(Last game: Kansas 90, Kansas State 68)
