Providence vs Kansas: Sweet 16 Preview & Players to Watch

Overview
Players to Watch
Prediction

Tonight, Kansas faces 4 seed Providence for a shot at the Elite 8, where the winner of a surprising matchup between Iowa State and Miami awaits. Providence has been a somewhat controversial team this year, as their record has outpaced most predictive metrics by quite a bit.

Overview

Providence is ranked #1 in KenPom's "luck" metric, while being ranked just the 32nd best team (which would imply they were overseeded quite a bit). However, the Committee looks at resumes, and Providence went 27-5 this year, despite playing in a pretty good Big East Conference. A big part of the disparity is that Providence went 12-2 in games decided by five or fewer points. Predictive metrics aren't too impressed with a bunch of narrow victories unless they're bolstered by some much more impressive ones, which Providence does not have many of.

That's not to say Providence is actually a bad team. They did still win games over Texas Tech, Wisconsin, UConn, Seton Hall, Marquette, and Creighton. You don't purely sleepwalk your way to victories over that many tournament teams if you aren't any good. It's just that they may have played more like a 7 or 8 seed this year, while racking up the win total of a much better team. With that said, 7 and 8 seeds can still be plenty dangerous, and Kansas should not take this team lightly.

In terms of style of play, Providence will want to slow things down and play a half court game. They ranked 283rd in KenPom's adjusted tempo this year, while KU ranked 64th, suggesting a clash in comfort zone when it comes to the speed of the game. Providence is fairly evenly balanced, but their offense looks better than their defense. They're a solid three point shooting team that can also get to the line with regularity. They can also grab some offensive rebounds, a trait that's caused the Jayhawks headaches at times. The good news is they aren't elite on the offensive boards or from three, where they rank 99th and 93rd respectively. These are relative strengths, but not areas of dominance.

Defensively, they do a good job challenging shots, holding opponents to 47% (61st nationally). They've also benefitted from some 3 point luck, with opponents shooting just over 30% from outside, a factor that research shows defenses don't actually have that much control over. The defense has more control over how freely opponents let it fly from three, but Providence is very average in that respect. One key statistic about the Friars defense that jumps out above all others is this: they do not force turnovers. They rank just 322nd in forced turnover rate, and that's a big deal because, at times, the Jayhawks have struggled with pressure defenses that can generate steals and offensive mistakes. They won't see that here.

Players to Watch

Nate Watson, 6'10 senior center

Watson is the Friars' true big man, a 6'10, 260 pound senior who is also the team's leading scorer. However, he's not a great rebounder or shot blocker, so his addition of an inside scoring threat is the main focus here. He shot 56% this year on a whopping 319 attempts (all twos), while also drawing a ton of fouls. However, it should be noted that part of the reason for all these trips to the line is that Watson shoots poorly there (59%). When bigs not named David McCormack are in the game, the best decision may be to foul the big man.

Jared Bynum, 5'10 junior point guard

The Friars won't have a height advantage at the point with Bynum coming in under 6 feet, but he's still a gifted player. He has a fantastic 32.5% assist rate this year, while doubling as a high level three point shooter (42% on 103 attempts). He does this without turning the ball over, so he'll need Dajuan Harris' full defensive attention, and may be a risk when Remy Martin is assigned to him.

Noah Horchler, 6'8 senior forward

Horchler isn't their "true" big man, but he's a better rebounder than Watson, and about equal as a shot blocker. But Horchler overall plays more like a stretch four, and will require a defender who can come out to the perimeter (i.e. not McCormack or Lightfoot). Horchler has shot a team high 144 threes this year, and hit 41% of them. He's a talented overall player who will command attention from KU's defense, despite it also being drawn elsewhere.

Prediction

Betting lines have this as roughly a 7 point advantage for Kansas. That means the Jayhawks have the odds on their side, but this Friars team is not one to overlook. They are fully capable of catching fire from three, and have a few players with a bit of run protection capability that could help force Kansas to also score from outside. Providence has played a lot of close games, and I think this will be another one. I'll take Kansas because I trust Self more down the stretch of a tight match.

Kansas 75, Providence 73

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