Kansas vs. Duke Basketball Preview: A Champions Classic Showdown
It’s Duke. It’s the Champions Classic. It’s the first real test of the season.
But there will be no Coach K on the sideline. No Bill Self, either. And tons of new faces for whom this will be their first big-time nationally televised game.
All of that is to say, there’s a lot to unpack ahead of this matchup with no shortage of storylines.
Opponent Overview
Team: Duke
Record: 2-0
KenPom: 10
Line: KU -1.5 (opened KU -2)
Team Form
Duke has yet to be tested so far this year. The Blue Devils blew out Jacksonville (71-44) and USC Upstate (84-38), but those teams are ranked 181 and 312 in KenPom, respectively.
They haven’t won these games by being lights out from the field, and instead shooting a respectable 45.8% and 44.1% from the floor so far. The defense has been really strong, but again, it’s hard to judge what is real given the level of opponent.
Players to Watch
If you’re looking for familiar faces in a Duke uniform, it basically starts and ends with Jeremy Roach. The junior is off to a good start, averaging 13 points and six assists through two games.
Now, let’s get to the freshmen. Mark Mitchell, a 6-8 freshman from Kansas City and the No. 22 player in the Recruiting Services Consensus Index (RSCI) 100 has been the best scorer so far, leading the Blue Devils in scoring at 15.5 ppg. But you could argue fellow freshman—and No. 4 player in the RSCI—Kyle Filipowski has been Duke’s best overall player so far. Filipowski, a 7-footer from New York, is averaging a double-double (12.5 ppg, 11 rpg) while grabbing 13 offensive rebounds in two games (more on this later).
What’s scary for opponents is that Duke’s two best recruits aren’t at full strength. Seven-foot-one center Dereck Lively—No. 2 in the RSCI and No. 1 at 247Sports—missed the opener with a calf injury and played just 14 minutes against USC Upstate while scoring four points and grabbing two rebounds. Meanwhile, RSCI No. 1 player Dariq Whitehead fractured his foot in late August and on Nov. 2, coach Jon Scheyer said he was a couple weeks away from returning. On Monday, The Athletic’s Brendan Marks said Whitehead just got back to five-on-five work.
The Blue Devils also have a pair of experienced transfers in Ryan Young and Jacob Grandison. Young spent three years at Northwestern and averaged nearly nine points per game, while Grandison was at Illinois most recently after starting his career at Holy Cross. That freshman year was 2017-18, which would make him 24 years old.
Matchups to Watch
Two non-shooting areas of the game could be the deciding factors. The first is Duke’s ability to grab offensive rebounds. The Blue Devils grabbed 16 offensive boards against Jacksonville and 20 against USC Upstate on their way to out-rebounding their first two opponents by a combined 46 total boards. Considering Kansas is still trying to figure out its frontcourt, whoever can block out Duke’s players crashing the boards could be those that play the most.
The other aspect is an area that benefits the Jayhawks. Duke has turned the ball over 25 times in two games against poor defenses, likely as a result of young players. KU is best at turning defense into offense and playing in transition. Given how young the Blue Devils are, creating turnovers and playing fast could be huge for the Jayhawks.
Prediction
This is such a difficult game to predict based on everything mentioned above. These are two teams still learning how to play together, and if you can predict how 18 year olds are going to react to their first taste of the spotlight in college, then head straight to Vegas.
Both of these teams should look quite different in February compared to November 15, especially considering Duke is still dealing with injuries to its top freshmen. And it’s the lack of Whitehead and limited look at Lively that has me leaning KU here. Duke’s size is going to be a huge challenge, but at this early stage, I trust veterans like Dajuan Harris, Jalen Wilson, and Kevin McCullar to be poised and pester the Blue Devils on defense, leading to some easy buckets.
Give me the Jayhawks in a battle that’s going to come down to the last two minutes.
Kansas 74, Duke 70
Prediction record
2-0 ATS
Last game: Prediction – 83-65; Actual – 82-59
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