March Madness: Should Kansas Hope for St. John’s or Northern Iowa in Second Round?

The No. 4 seed Kansas Jayhawks have their work cut out for them in the East region of this year’s NCAA Tournament. The region is full of talented teams with experienced coaches, two of which await KU should they win their first round matchup against Cal Baptist, which they are heavily favored to do.

Both teams present their own set of unique challenges for the Jayhawks, but there’s a clear choice in who KU should hope to face if they reach round two on Sunday.

No. 5 St. John’s

The Red Storm are currently ranked as the No. 10 team in the country (according to the latest Associated Press Top 25 poll) and enter the NCAA Tournament as one of the hottest teams in college basketball – suggesting they may be vastly underseeded.

St. John’s just recently won the Big East regular season and tournament championship for the second year in a row under legendary college basketball head coach Rick Pitino after winning 19 of their last 20 games – including a 20-point win over UConn in the Big East Tournament Final.

They are led by former Jayhawk Zuby Ejiofor. The 6-foot-9, 245-pound senior forward has been a monster for St. John’s this year, averaging 16.3 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game. He’s also one of the best defensive players in the country and was recently named both Big East Player of the Year and Big East Defensive Player of the Year – the first time in conference history that a player has won both awards.

Ejiofor would be an extremely tough matchup for KU’s Flory Bidunga and Bryson Tiller. St. John’s senior forward Bryce Hopkins – who averages 13.5 points and 6.2 rebounds per game – would also be a challenge for the Jayhawks’ frontcourt.

Zuby Ejiofor tallied 7 blocks tonight 😨

The @StJohnsBball standout was a force on the defensive end 💪 pic.twitter.com/NorfeZ72PB
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 15, 2026

The one thing that might work in KU’s favor is St. John’s strength of schedule.

There are currently only two top 25 teams in the Big East (St. John’s and UConn), meaning the Red Storm didn’t exactly rack up a bunch of impressive conference wins this year. In fact, they lost to every ranked opponent they faced this season in both the non-conference and conference portion of their schedule – with the exception of their two wins against UConn. But both of those wins came in New York in front of a friendly Red Storm crowd.

Regardless, St. John’s has momentum, they’re talented, and they’re led by a Hall of Fame head coach who’s been in these situations before. That’s a tough combination for anyone to face.

No. 12 Northern Iowa

Kansas fans are all too familiar with Northern Iowa’s ability in the NCAA Tournament after the Panthers upset the No. 1 ranked Jayhawks back in 2010 by a score of 69-67. It was a KU team full of all-time greats, including Sherron Collins, Cole Aldrich, Marcus and Markieff Morris, Thomas Robinson, and Tyshawn Taylor.

It remains one of the biggest upsets in NCAA Tournament history, but this is a different UNI team that presents its own set of challenges.

This year’s Northern Iowa team – led by 20-year head coach Ben Jacobson – enters the Big Dance at 23-12 after winning the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament earlier this month, despite finishing sixth in the league during the regular season. They won four consecutive games and were able to do so in large part because of their unique style of play.

The Panthers play at one of the slowest, most methodical tempos in the country. They are also an elite defensive team that currently ranks No. 1 in the country in scoring defense and No. 3 in 3-point percentage defense, holding teams to an average of just 61.3 points per game.

That could present a big problem for a KU team that has struggled to manufacture points as of late and ranks No. 178 in scoring offense in college basketball this season.

The good news? The Panthers own one of the worst scoring offenses in the country. They are ranked No. 307 in college basketball with an average of 69.9 points per game. They also lack size and length which contributes to their poor offensive rebounding (ranking No. 355 out of 361 teams in Division I).

The Panthers’ tallest starter is forward Will Hornseth at 6-foot-8. That would be a big matchup advantage for KU on offense and defense with Bidunga's ability to score at the rim and block shots.

The Better Matchup for Kansas

Both schools have experienced rosters with experienced head coaches who would present their own challenges for KU should the Jayhawks reach the second round. But there’s no question that Kansas should hope to play Northern Iowa over St. John’s.

KU would be the bigger, more athletic team, and they wouldn’t have to worry about the Panthers lighting up the scoreboard.

Meanwhile, St. John’s frontcourt would present a massive problem for the Jayhawks, and they have the defensive capabilities to limit KU’s scoring. That, combined with Pitino’s experience on the big stage, could be a recipe for disaster.

If the Jayhawks advance past Cal Baptist on Friday, they should hope to have the Panthers waiting for them in round two. If not, KU will have their work cut out for them to reach the Sweet 16 for the first time in four years.