NCAA Tournament 2024 – Midwest Region Preview
The Midwest region of the NCAA Tournament is a fascinating mixture of styles and storylines. The Kansas Jayhawks are the four seed with plenty of familiar faces making up the 16-team region and plenty of teams that have question marks around whether they can be trusted. .
Biggest Storylines
Can Purdue pull a Virginia and go from upset by a 16 seed to national champion in back-to-back years? The Boilermakers have the National Player of the Year for a second straight year and a target on their back. But that’s far from the only storyline.
Saint Peters is back in the tournament for the first time since that magical run two years ago. Rick Barnes could be facing his former squad in Texas in the round of 32. Gonzaga coach Mark Few – an outspoken proponent of “cheating” in the sport – is facing off against former LSU coach Will Wade and McNeese. And Samford has become a darling pick based on its style of play (lots of threes and a full-court press).
There are also plenty of coaches – Matt Painter, Greg McDermott, Barnes, and Few – looking to get a monkey off their back in various ways.
Best First-Round Matchup
5 Gonzaga vs 12 McNeese
There are several worthy choices here, but I’m fascinated by this one. This year, Gonzaga is not the juggernaut we’ve become accustomed to, but the Zags did end the regular season going 13-1. And it’s facing McNeese, which has the third longest winning streak at 11 games.
The matchup is also a battle of styles. McNeese shoots 39.4% from three, while Gonzaga is seventh in the nation at scoring inside the arc. These teams are also both great at offensive rebounds and are in the top 25 in taking care of the ball, but McNeese pressures the ball much more than the Bulldogs.
Upset/Cinderella Pick
I break down the closest thing that I think we get to a Cinderella in this region in the next section below. So let’s just focus on a 1-2 round upset. And look, I don’t actually feel good about this pick, but that’s why I’m saying it.
Every year, a team in the first four goes on to win in the round of 64 and even beyond. And often it’s the team that was most criticized that it shouldn’t have even been in Dayton in the first place. That team this year? Virginia. Given the disappointed nature of Texas this year, would it shock you if the Cavaliers won that matchup? And then it would face a Tennessee team who can struggle to score from people not named Dalton Knecht. I won’t be betting on it to happen, all I’m saying is keep an eye on it. There's always one that comes out of nowhere.
Dark Horse Pick (5 Seed Or Higher That Could Win Region)
This is a bit of a process by elimination. I don’t trust Texas, even though the Longhorns have the athleticism and talent to be better than they are. I also don’t trust South Carolina or Oregon to win three or four games in a row.
Instead, give me TCU. The Horned Frogs only have one loss outside of the first quadrant, so they have proven to mostly beat the teams they’re supposed to beat. They are in the top 50 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, they’re athletic, they rebound really well, and they play fast. TCU has beaten both Houston and Baylor and only lost by two in Allen Fieldhouse, so they can play with anyone when they’re right, and I think their guards could cause Purdue’s guards some problems if they meet in the second round.
Regional Final Prediction
3 Kansas vs 4 Creighton
I detailed some of the rationale for how this could play out in the latest episode of the Rock Chalk Podcast (listen and subscribe, please and thank you). Bill Self is incredible with rest and time to prepare. The second round will be a huge challenge, but if KU can win (I explain why it’s a solid draw from a matchup standpoint and it sounds like positive news on the Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar front), then I think the rest and time to game plan helps KU against Purdue. Purdue would still likely be favored, but Dickinson could battle Edey and who knows what happens in one game.
Then you have Creighton in the bottom half of the bracket. The Blue Jays can get hot offensively and were really good the last eight games of the regular season, going 7-1 with wins over UConn and Marquette in that span. I don’t see South Carolina or Oregon being much of a threat and Tennessee and Rick Barnes need to prove they can take the next step before I can take the Volunteers.
But it’s not all homerism as I think Creighton is a scary team to play on 48 hours after potentially facing the No. 1 team in the country for most of the year. I’ll say the Blue Jays advance to the Final Four.
