Texas at Kansas Basketball Preview
Last Saturday, the Kansas Jayhawks sent Oklahoma off to the SEC with a loss in hand. This Saturday, it will look to do the same thing to the other defector, the Texas Longhorns, inside Allen Fieldhouse as KU looks for a win while still being in the hunt for a piece of the Big 12 title.
Opponent Overview
Team: Texas
Record: 17-9
KenPom: 32
Line: TBD (KenPom projects KU -6)
Team Form
The Longhorns have struggled to string wins together all conference season. Texas has only won back-to-back Big 12 games once this year, and that was back in January when it beat Baylor and Oklahoma in a four-day span. That sequence was followed by two straight losses to BYU and Houston, and since then, UT has alternated wins and losses the past five games.
Most recently, Texas edged out Kansas State at home on Monday, 62-56, after running into the buzzsaw that is Houston in Houston last Saturday, 82-61.
Players to Watch
Guard Max Abmas is one of the best scorers in the college game, recently eclipsing 3,000 points for his career. He’s averaging 16.9 points for the year and does it from everywhere. Abmas shoots 50% from two, 37% from three (on 7.5 attempts per game), and 90% from the free-throw line. He also leads the team in assists at 4.4 per game, narrowly edging out backcourt mate Tyrese Hunter (4.3 assists). Abmas has struggled of late, failing to score in double figures in his past two games, which also happen to be the only times all year he has been held to single digits.
The player Kansas has to account for everywhere on the floor is Dylan Disu. The 6-9 forward is averaging a team-high 17.1 points to go with 5.1 rebounds per game and is making a ridiculous 55% of his threes on 60 attempts (he didn’t play until Dec. 16 due to a foot injury stemming from last year’s NCAA Tournament). Disu is also excellent at both blocking shots and creating steals, so the Jayhawks have to be aware of him on both sides of the court. In his last five games, Disu has put up:
- 15 points & seven rebounds at TCU
- 28 points & 10 rebounds vs Iowa State
- 27 points vs West Virginia
- 16 points & seven rebounds at Houston
- 20 points & eight rebounds vs K-State
Matchups to Watch
Who is going to get hot from three? Texas shoots nearly 37% from deep on the year and is third in the conference at the same mark in Big 12 play. But conference opponents are also shooting 36.6% against Texas, which is the highest percentage in the league. In case you’re wondering, Big 12 opponents are hitting 34.8% against KU, which is 10th only in front of Texas, Texas Tech, UCF, and Baylor.
The deep ball has by far been where UT has excelled the most on offense. On defense, Texas is struggling from everywhere. UT is 10th in the Big 12 in opponent effective field goal percentage, 10th in offensive rebounding percentage, and eighth in two-point percentage. If Kansas can hit shots early and the defense can run Texas off the three-point line – or at least highly contest those shots – the Allen Fieldhouse crowd could help KU get off to an strong lead.
Prediction
Texas has the athleticism and talent to beat anyone on a given night. But will the Longhorns make shots and not shoot themselves in the feet with bad turnovers? The week off has to be good for Kansas, though it needs Kevin McCullar’s defense particularly for this type of matchup.
The combination of confidence gained in the last 10 minutes of the Oklahoma game, the extra rest, and playing at home knowing you need every one of these wins to remain in the Big 12 title hunt makes it difficult for me to pick against Kansas here. If KU can score more than 70 points, it should win, and I think that will happen.
Kansas 74, Texas 67
Record ATS: 13-13
Record Straight Up: 21-5
(Last game: Kansas 67, Oklahoma 57)
