Kansas vs. Baylor Football Preview: How Will Injuries Impact the Game?
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Next week’s bye will finally allow Kansas to try and get healthier, but first it’s another road game against a strong Big 12 offense when the Jayhawks travel to Waco to face Baylor at 11 a.m.
But KU is not the only team banged up at the moment, as the status of several key Bears is up in the air after suffering injuries against West Virginia last week.
Opponent Overview
Team: Baylor
Record: 3-3
Line: Baylor -8 (opened Baylor -10)
Team Form
Baylor is coming into the contest on a two-game losing streak, but it’s a defendable one. The Bears came up short against Oklahoma State two weeks ago in a competitive game and then lost on the road in Morgantown last Thursday by a field goal. And in that game, the Bears lost both its starting quarterback (Blake Shapen) and second leading rusher (Craig Williams) to hits to the head.
In games against common opponents, Baylor defeated Iowa State 31-24, but unlike Kansas, the Bears couldn’t get the win in Morgantown against West Virginia. Baylor also lost in double overtime to BYU in week two, which looked good at the time as BYU was ranked, but looks slightly worse now that the Cougars have lost to Notre Dame and Arkansas the last two weeks.
Players to Watch
Lance Leipold is moving forward as if Shapen is starting at quarterback for Baylor, but official word was not out as of writing. Shapen has had an excellent start to the year, completing 68.5% of his passes with an 11:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. If he can’t go, it’s going to be backup Kyron Drones, who came into the West Virginia game and went 7-14 for 95 yards, one touchdown, and an interception.
Richard Reese is going to get the majority of the carries at running back and is averaging 5.4 yards per rush while finding the end zone seven times. But Kansas will also need to watch out for Reese and fellow back Qualan Jones in the passing game. Jones has nine receptions already out of the backfield and Baylor has completed 19 passes to running backs for nearly 200 yards so far this year.
Like Kansas, Baylor has a number of receivers that can hurt you, and Shapen has done a good job spreading the wealth. Gavin Holmes and Monaray Baldwin have been the most productive of the group, and what stands out is their yards per catch. Both are averaging north of 20 yards per reception, which could be problematic against a banged-up Jayhawks secondary. Shapen’s go-to underneath has been tight end Ben Sims, who leads the team in receptions (22) despite playing one less game, but is averaging 7.1 yards per catch.
On defense, Al Walcott leads Baylor in tackles (37) and tackles for loss (5) from the secondary, while linebacker Matt Jones tied for second in tackles (31), second in sacks (1.5), and also leads the team in passes defended (4).
Matchups to Watch
Can Kansas’ passing defense hold up against a slew of talented Baylor receivers? The Bears have thrown for 766 yards in their last two games against passing defenses giving up similar yards through the air as Kansas. But the equalizer would be if the Jayhawks can keep Baylor turning the ball over. BU gave the ball away twice against Oklahoma State and four times against West Virginia to negate how many points could have been put on the board with the number of yards the Bears were racking up.
The other matchup that will be big to watch is Kansas’ rushing attack versus the Baylor run defense. The Bears are only giving up 117 yards per game on 3.4 yards per carry, however West Virginia just gashed Baylor for 217 yards on the ground a week ago. The Jayhawks will likely need better production than that to take some of the pressure and responsibility off Jason Bean.
Prediction
Kansas and Baylor have something in common in that they have both dropped their last two games and their last win came against Iowa State (poor Cyclones). Obviously the health and status of Shapen has a huge impact on this outcome. I expect this one to be close and I have gone back and forth three or four times on who I think will win. This is one of the most winnable games on the remaining schedule, but I’m worried the Jayhawks are just too banged up in this one, especially if Shapen plays. If Daniels and Bryant were healthy, I'd pick the Jayhawks. It's just a tough matchup from a timing standpoint.
Baylor 35, Kansas 31
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