Will the Kansas Defense really hold them back?: 56 Days

If you ask most fans of the Kansas Jayhawks, there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic. With Lance Leipold at the helm of the program and Jalon Daniels leading a contingent of players receiving preseason accolades, it is difficult to imagine this season being any worse than last season.

But when the preseason Big 12 Media Poll came out this week, the Jayhawks were a lowly ninth. Even if you are generous and assume that they are in a dead heat with UCF, that still means that many expect the Jayhawks to be in the bottom half of the conference this year.

Texas has been selected atop the Big 12 preseason media poll with 41 of the 67 first-place votes.

Kansas State and Oklahoma round out the top three. pic.twitter.com/BSGlzLo0Qb
— Shehan Jeyarajah (@ShehanJeyarajah) July 6, 2023

The position of the Jayhawks is fairly puzzling, considering that Daniels was named Preseason Offensive Player of the Year and three other players joined him on the first team as voted by the same media personnel. The four selections was tied with Kansas State for the second most, just one behind Texas.

There is precedence for the media underestimating a team with a lot of stars, as just last season the Kansas State Wildcats won the conference after having six players on the preseason All-Big 12 team but were picked 5th in the 10-team conference. So I'm not convinced that Kansas is getting the credit it deserves.

But let's assume that Kansas does finish towards the bottom of the conference. What would prevent the Jayhawks from capitalizing on a fantastic offense that has the best quarterback and running back combo in the conference? It would have to be the defense.

If you look at the raw stats for the Jayhawks on the defensive end last year, they don't look great. By total yards allowed, the Jayhawks were 124th out of 130 teams in rushing yards and 107th in passing yards. But through a combination of long drives by opponents and quick-scoring drives by the offense, the Jayhawks saw a huge number of plays. Going by per play stats, the defense was 108th in both yards per carry (rushing) and yards per passing attempt, and 82nd in yards per completion.

But those total stats don't tell the whole story. There were two big indicators for when the Kansas defense struggled. The first one was more obvious, and that is home vs away. The defense played much better at home, where they held three of five opponents to below their season averages in both yards per carry or yards per completion. Texas was significantly better in yards per carry, and Duke was better in both marks, but only significantly in yards per completion.

Meanwhile, the only times that the Jayhawks kept opponents below season averages on the road was yards per carry for West Virginia and Houston and yards per completion against Baylor.

There is obviously more context to the numbers, such as Duke trailing Kansas significantly before the defense played prevent. Also, Oklahoma State injuries helped out a lot, while the Iowa State performance was likely much more about the Cyclones than the Jayhawks. But the point is that location made a huge difference, and the Jayhawks have 7 home games this year.

The other factor is the tempo that the opposing offense played. The two biggest examples of this would be the Oklahoma game and the Texas game. In each, the opponent played an up-tempo style that kept the Jayhawks from being able to substitute as often as they would like. That took away the biggest advantage they had, which was to have fresh legs at the end of the game, even if the lower level of top-end talent struggled in the beginning. But those two teams were able to force those players to stay in and exploited the mismatches, even later in the game.

But Kansas has completely changed the approach up front, with multiple higher-level defensive lineman that should be able to stand up better to the offensive lines in the Big 12. I'm not guaranteeing that the defense performs much better this season in the stats. But there are plenty of reasons to think that this team will play better defensively, and if the offense is as good as it appears to be, the Jayhawks might continue the trend of teams that outperform preseason expectations.