ESPN predicts the winner between Kentucky and Texas Longhorns

ESPN projects who will win between the Kentucky Wildcats and Texas Longhorns men's basketball.

Jan 17, 2026; Knoxville, Tennessee, USA; Kentucky Wildcats head coach Mark Pope during the first half against the Tennessee Volunteers at Thompson-Boling Arena at Food City Center. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-Imagn Images | Randy Sartin-Imagn Images

Following overcoming back-to-back games where they faced 17-point deficits on the road and escaped with wins, the Kentucky Wildcats are finally back in Rupp Arena, as they are set to play the Texas Longhorns (11-7, 2-3 SEC) on Wednesday night. Kentucky is now 3-5 in Quad 1 games after their two road wins last week, and they are looking to keep that momentum riding high.

Texas is a team that is sneaky good in the SEC. They are coming off of a close home loss to Texas A&M, but before that, they picked up two-straight quality wins over Alabama and Vanderbilt, who are two of the top teams in the SEC, and also feature electric offenses. The Longhorns beat Alabama by four on the road, and then picked up a convincing 16-point win over the Commodores. It starts on the offensive end for Texas, as they are one of the most efficient teams at getting out in transition. Not only that, but they are an excellent offensive rebounding team, and they feed off second chances. In their win over Vandy, the Longhorns forced 10 turnovers, and six of them were from steals. They don't force a lot of turnovers, but when they do, it is mostly off of takeaways. Texas is also terrific at getting to the line, which is the biggest part of their offense, especially off of put-backs from offensive rebounds. The Longhorns rank 13th in the country in percentage of points coming from free-throws.

A huge key for Kentucky in this one has to be rebounding. Texas ranks 1st in offensive rebound percentage, and second-chance points could become a key for their offense. But what might be just as important is keeping them off of the free-throw line, and the Longhorns could take advantage of that off of their offensive rebounds by embracing contact on the way back up. In fact, Texas' 7-foot starting big man Matas Vokietaitis actually draws the most fouls per game, according to KenPom. Not only that, but he is also first in free-throw rate. That could spell a matchup problem for Kentucky's frontcourt.

Jan 17, 2026; Knoxville, Tennessee, USA; Kentucky Wildcats guard Otega Oweh (00) brings the ball up court against the Tennessee Volunteers during the second half at Thompson-Boling Arena at Food City Center. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-Imagn Images | Randy Sartin-Imagn Images

As we get set for the SEC hoops matchup in Rupp Arena, ESPN gives Kentucky a 76.4% chance to get the win on their home floor Wednesday against the Texas Longhorns. Kentucky absolutely has to keep Texas off the glass and limit their opportunities, because that is what they get the bulk of their scoring off of, as that leads to plenty of free-throw opportunities. But, on the other end, the Longhorns have an exploitable defense, especially with a shaky three-point defense. If Kentucky can knock down shots, it's going to be hard for their opponent to keep up.

Can Kentucky finally avoid a slow start and having to come back from a big deficit? We shall see. The Wildcats have an opportunity to get some serious momentum if they can put together an all-around good showing on Wednesday.