College basketball expert predicts an early NCAA Tournament exit from Kentucky

College basketball media does not like Kentucky's chances of advancing to the Round of 32.

Jan 31, 2026; Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA; Kentucky Wildcats head coach Mark Pope during the game against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Bud Walton Arena. Kentucky won 85-77. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images | Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

There doesn’t seem to be a whole lot of belief in this Kentucky team. It is probably safe to say that Santa Clara taking down Kentucky might very well be the most common upset pick in brackets so far this year. Just about every analyst seems confident that the Broncos from the WCC are going to take down the Wildcats.

Gary Parrish and just about all of the CBS Sports crew have said that they are taking the Broncos in this ball game. Parrish had this to say about why he is picking Santa Clara: “I’m taking Santa Clara. Kentucky has been up and down all season in part because Jaland Lowe was sidelined early, and Jayden Quaintance was sidelined after only a handful of games.  Santa Clara won 26 times this season. I know the projected score is going to be close. I will take the Broncos to advance over the 22-million-dollar Wildcats.”

Mar 7, 2026; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Kentucky Wildcats head coach Mark Pope claps during the first half against the Florida Gators at Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images | Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

It is hard to argue with what Parrish is saying about the Wildcats and their inconsistencies. Most fans know that that the Wildcats are capable of beating this team by double-digit points if they play well, but if they don’t have a good showing, this will be a very tight game.

While without question the Wildcats have a real shot to lose this game, I also am a big believer that the national media is overvaluing the Broncos. Santa Clara plays in the WCC, which means Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s is the only competition this team plays. They beat Saint Mary’s twice and went 0-3 against Gonzaga.

Outside of WCC play, the Broncos don’t have many impressive wins. They have proven they can beat some power conference schools, but they are just not the team the national media is making them out to be. The reality is if the Broncos played in the SEC, they would have a lot fewer wins, and they would be much lower in KenPom.

Mar 3, 2026; College Station, Texas, USA; Kentucky Wildcats head coach Mark Pope reacts during the second half against the Texas A&M Aggies at Reed Arena. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

I don’t mean any disrespect to Santa Clara as they are a really good team, but if Kentucky plays well, they will blow this team out of the water. If the Wildcats don’t play well, it could be an early exit for Pope’s team.

Kentucky needs to step on Santa Clara's throat and never let this game get interesting, because this is where opposing teams trying to pull off an upset start to get hope. Fast starts have been an issue for the Wildcats this season, but if they had one in this game, it would be massive.