ESPN predicts winner of Kentucky vs. #25 Tennessee in season's second matchup

ESPN projects who will win between the Kentucky Wildcats and Tennessee Volunteers in Rupp Arena.

Kentucky basketball coach Mark Pope after winning a game against the Tennessee Volunteers at Thompson-Boling Arena at Food City Center in Knoxville, Tenn., on Jan. 17, 2026. | Angelina Alcantar/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Kentucky Wildcats and Tennessee Volunteers are set to face each other once again on Saturday, this time in Rupp Arena. In the first matchup between the two, Kentucky basketball overcame a 17-point deficit down in Knoxville to leave with an 80-78 victory over Tennessee. It was an incredible gritty win and the Wildcats will look to have more of the same luck, at least from the late portion of that game.

Since the two teams last met, Tennessee has won four games in a row, now sitting at 6-3 in the conference. That record is tied for the third best record in the SEC at the moment. The Volunteers' four wins came against Alabama and Georgia on the road as well as Auburn and Ole Miss at home. As for Kentucky, they are now 7-3 in the SEC, as they were just 3-2 heading into the last matchup, really searching for that first key win.

In terms of where Kentucky can find success, not much changes in terms of the matchup this time around. Tennessee is still an extremely physical team, with one of the best defenses in the country and best offensive rebounding teams. But, they are also exploitable due to their sloppy defense. In Kentucky's comeback win, a big reason that the run was so successful was because of Tennessee's turnover ability. The Wildcats forced seven turnovers while committing just one miscue of their own. They were also brilliant in getting much-needed second-chance points as well. Kentucky really took advantage of vulnerable Tennessee offense, using that to fuel their comeback.

Feb 4, 2026; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Kentucky Wildcats guard Denzel Aberdeen (1) celebrates with guard Collin Chandler (5) during the second half against the Oklahoma Sooners at Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images | Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

As we get set for the second matchup of the season between Kentucky basketball and Tennessee, ESPN is giving the Wildcats a 56 percent chance to come away with the home victory to earn a regular-season sweep over the Volunteers. Last time, Kentucky came in as underdogs and now, have some confidence in themselves after winning seven of their last eight games. The Wildcats have been a much different team than the were in the last game between the two schools. If Kentucky can create off of turnovers and continue playing intense defense, as well as creating for others on offense, the Wildcats will have a good chance of sweeping Tennessee.

Can Kentucky keep their hot-streak rolling and advance to 12-3 in their last 15 games? They certainly have looked like a different team lately with the product they have put onto the court.