The analytics don't like Kentucky's chances against Iowa State

Mark Pope and the Kentucky Wildcats picked up a riveting Round of 64 win over ten-seed Santa Clara thanks to a massive half-court-ish heave from Otega Oweh that sent the game to overtime. The Wildcats were able to take down the Broncos in overtime, setting up an even greater challenge in the Round of 32.

The two-seed Iowa State Cyclones are next for Pope’s Wildcats, but there is a big injury concern. In the Cyclones ' first-round matchup with Tennessee State, Iowa State’s star forward Joshua Jefferson went down with an injury, and it is still up in the air whether or not he will be able to suit up. Right now, it seems like the chances are slim that he is out on the floor for Iowa State.

Mar 11, 2026; Kansas City, MO, USA; Iowa State Cyclones forward Joshua Jefferson (5) protects the ball from Arizona State Sun Devils center Massamba Diop (35) during the first half at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-Imagn Images | William Purnell-Imagn Images

This is a massive blow for Coach TJ Otzelberger as Jefferson is the second leading scorer for the Cyclones, averaging 16.4 points per game, and he is the team's leading rebounder, averaging 7.4 per contest. If Jefferson can’t give it a go, this increases the chances Coach Pope’s team has of pulling off the upset.

KenPom does not like the Wildcats chances of winning this game, as they project the Cyclones to win 77-70. The defense for the Cyclones is elite, as KenPom has it as the fifth-best defense in the nation. Otega Oweh had a historic game in the win over Santa Clara, and the Wildcats will need him to have another big performance to get the win.

Oweh seems to always show up when this team needs him the most, and against one of the best teams in college hoops, the Wildcats will definitely need a big performance from him.

Mar 20, 2026; St. Louis, MO, USA; Kentucky Wildcats head coach Mark Pope reacts against the Santa Clara Broncos during the first half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Enterprise Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-Imagn Images | Jeff Curry-Imagn Images

While Iowa State is known for its elite defense, the offense is also very good, which is why the Cyclones are ranked as the 6th-best team overall in KenPom. The Wildcats have some impressive wins over teams like Arkansas, St. John’s, and beating the Tennessee Volunteers twice. While Pope’s team has picked up some good wins, taking down the Cyclones would be their best win of the season. This means it would probably take the best performance of the season from Kentucky.

The Wildcats need to take care of the ball in this game if they want to pull off the upset, so once again, Denzel Aberdeen needs to be great in this matchup. Vegas and the analysts don’t like the Wildcats' chances in this game, but there is a world where Pope’s team pulls off the upset.