Three reasons #12 Kentucky will lose to #17 Michigan State

A big game is on deck for Mark Pope and the Kentucky Wildcats, as they are on the road to take on #17 Michigan State in Madison Square Garden. These Spartans just took down John Calipari and Arkansas, so they are coming into this game feeling confident.

Michigan State is a well-coached team full of veteran players who have been with Tom Izzo for a while. This won't be an easy game for the Wildcats to walk into MSG and win.

Let's take a look at three reasons the Kentucky Wildcats will lose to the Michigan State Spartans. Here is our previous article listing three reasons the Wildcats will beat the Spartans.

Three reasons #12 Kentucky will fall to #17 Michigan State

Michigan State makes its threes

Nov 8, 2025; East Lansing, Michigan, USA; Michigan State Spartans head coach Tom Izzo watches his squad against Arkansas during the first half at Jack Breslin Student Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Dale Young-Imagn Images | Dale Young-Imagn Images

Michigan State has been one of the worst teams in college basketball so far this season, shooting the three-ball. They are shooting 21.7% from deep so far this season. Only four Spartans have made a three-pointer this season, and in the win over Arkansas, they only had one make from deep. Kentucky fans feel they are cursed when it comes to teams getting hot from three against them, so Big Blue Nation needs to hope that is not the case in this game.

Jaxon Kohler has a big game

Jaxon Kohler is the star player for this Michigan State team, and the Wildcats will need to make sure he doesn't have a big game. The 6'9 senior forward is averaging 14.3 points and 13.3 rebounds per game this season. He was a big part of the Spartans' Elite Eight run a year ago. If he dominates down low, it is going to be hard for the Wildcats to pull out the win in this basketball game.

Kentucky gets dominated around the rim

Nov 4, 2025; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Kentucky Wildcats forward Brandon Garrison (10) celebrates after dunking the ball during the first half against the Nicholls Colonels at Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images | Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

Knowing Michigan State struggles from three, a lot of their points are scored in the paint. They dominated the Razorbacks in the paint, outscoring Calipari's team 46-28 in this department. Brandon Garrison had his fair share of struggles in the Wildcats' loss to Louisville, so he needs to play well in this game. If he is not playing well, then Malachi Moreno needs to play a good portion of the minutes for the Wildcats at the five. This game on defense for Kentucky will be made down low so Garrison, Moreno, Mo Dioubate, and Andrija Jelavic are going to play a big role in who wins this ball game.