Three reasons the Kentucky Wildcats will lose to the Tennessee Volunteers

Kentucky must avoid these things to beat the Volunteers on Saturday.

Mar 28, 2025; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Kentucky Wildcats head coach Mark Pope and Tennessee Volunteers head coach Rick Barnes talk after the game for the Midwest Regional semifinal of the 2025 NCAA tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images | Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

It is only Friday morning but the buzz surrounding Kentucky’s matchup with the Tennessee Volunteers can be felt all over Lexington. Kentucky will be going for the regular season sweep on Saturday for the second year in a row over Rick Barnes and the Vols. The other important part of this game is that the Wildcats will be breaking out the denim jerseys that Coach Pope’s team wore during the 1996 season, where they won the National Title.

While the Wildcats were able to take down the Volunteers in Knoxville, they only led this game for under a minute so this Tennessee team can’t be overlooked. Pope needs to keep his team grounded and make sure that they don’t get over hyped in what should be an elite Rupp Arena atmosphere.

Yesterday we put out an article listing three reasons why the Kentucky Wildcats will win this matchup. Now, let's take a look at three things that could cause Coach Pope’s team to lose.

Three reasons the Kentucky Wildcats will lose to the Tennessee Volunteers

Ja’Kobi Gillespie gets hot from three/Nate Ament plays well

Tennessee guard Ja'Kobi Gillespie (0) dribbles the ball away from Kentucky guard Otega Oweh (00) during a NCAA basketball game between the Tennessee Volunteers and Kentucky Wildcats at Thompson-Boling Arena at Food City Center in Knoxville, Tenn., on Jan. 17, 2026. | Angelina Alcantar/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

In the first meeting between these two ball clubs, Ja’Kobi Gillespie had a good game for the Volunteers, scoring 24 points, but he did have the turnover that secured the win for Pope’s team. Gillespie is a great point guard who can shoot the cover off the ball. Nate Ament is the star freshman for this Tennessee team who is going to be a lottery pick in the NBA Draft. Ament is capable of taking a game over, as is Gillespie so the Wildcats need to make sure these two are inefficient.

The Wildcats put the Vols at the charity stripe all night

Feb 3, 2026; Knoxville, Tennessee, USA; Tennessee Volunteers forward Nate Ament (10) moves the ball against the Mississippi Rebels during the first half at Thompson-Boling Arena at Food City Center. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-Imagn Images | Randy Sartin-Imagn Images

In the first meeting between these two teams, the Volunteers lived at the free throw line 29 times, and the combination of Gillespie and Ament shot 21 of those 29 free throws. Kentucky needs to guard without fouling in this game. The Volunteers don’t have a great offense, so the Wildcats should not be fouling them, giving them a ton of free points at the stripe. If Kentucky makes Tennessee score from the field rather than at the stripe, it will help the Wildcats win, but if Tennessee is living at the stripe, they could pull off the upset in Lexington.

The Vols defense slows Kentucky’s offense

Feb 3, 2026; Knoxville, Tennessee, USA; Tennessee Volunteers head coach Rick Barnes during the first half against the Mississippi Rebels at Thompson-Boling Arena at Food City Center. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-Imagn Images | Randy Sartin-Imagn Images

Per usual for a Rick Barnes coached team, the Vols aren’t special on the offensive side of the floor, but the defense is really good. Kentucky had a good offensive day against Tennessee when these teams met in Knoxville, shooting 47% from the field and 46% from three. It will take another elite offensive game for the Wildcats to get the win. Kentucky’s offense has been playing better of late, and this needs to continue on Saturday. If Tennessee’s defense is a problem for the Cats on Saturday, they could drop this game.