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Projecting Louisville WBB's NCAA Tournament Draw Following ACC Tournament Run

Selection Sunday is just two days away for the Cardinals.
Mar 6, 2026; Duluth, GA, USA; Louisville Cardinals head coach Jeff Walz talks to guard Imari Berry (2) during the game against the Syracuse Orange during the second half at Gas South Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images
Mar 6, 2026; Duluth, GA, USA; Louisville Cardinals head coach Jeff Walz talks to guard Imari Berry (2) during the game against the Syracuse Orange during the second half at Gas South Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

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LOUISVILLE, Ky. - While the Louisville women's basketball program ultimately came short of winning a conference title, they came incredibly close to winning their first since 2018.

Earning a No. 2 seed for the ACC Tournament, the Cardinals easily took down Syracuse 87-61 in the quarterfinals and squeaked by North Carolina 65-57 in the semifinals, before ultimately falling 70-65 in overtime to top-seeded Duke in the ACC Championship.

While that conference title eluded them, year 19 under head coach Jeff Walz has still been extremely successful. They're 27-7 overall, which included a 15-3 mark in regular season conference play, and six of their losses are to teams ranked in the AP Poll.

No matter how you slice it, Louisville is not only a stone cold lock to make the NCAA Tournament when Selection Sunday arrives, but a prime candidate to host the first weekend. They have a ranking of No. 11 in both the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) and Wins Above Bubble (WAB), which are the primary metrics that the the NCAA Tournament selection committee uses in part when determining the tournament field.

The only remaining question is who against, and where exactly, the Cards will be kicking off their NCAA Tournament run. Fortunately, bracketology is in full swing with just two days until the Field of 68 is revealed, so we have some idea as to what Louisville's NCAA Tournament draw will be.

In his most recent update, ESPN's Charlie Creme - the most noteworthy and well-respected women's basketball bracketologist - has the Cardinals as a No. 3 seed and matched up against No. 14 Louisiana Tech. This matchup is paired with No. 6 Baylor vs. No. 11 Rhode Island, with the top seed in the region being UCLA.

CBS Sports' Connor Groel also has Louisville as a No. 3 seed in his Mar. 9 update, and has them squaring off against No. 14 UC Irvine. This projection has No. 6 Washington vs. No. 11 Virginia/BYU in the paired matchup at the KFC Yum! Center, with UCLA also being the No. 1 team in the region.

Keeping up with the theme, Her Hoop Stats has the Cardinals as a No. 3 seed as well in their Mar. 11 update. They're pitting UofL against No. 14 Western Illinois, with that matchup paired against No. 6 Baylor vs. No. 11 Fairfield. UCLA, once again, is the top seed in this region.

As part of College Sports Madness' Mar. 11 update, you guessed it, Louisville is a No. 3 seed here too. This projection has them opening the Big Dance with No. 14 Charleston, and that showdown is paired with No. 6 Baylor vs. No. 11 Rice. UConn is the region's top team.

The Selection Show for the women's basketball NCAA Tournament is set for Sunday, Mar. 15 at 8:00 p.m. EST on ESPN.

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(Photo of Dale Zanine: Dale Zanine - Imagn Images)

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Matthew McGavic
MATTHEW MCGAVIC

McGavic is a 2016 Sport Administration graduate of the University of Louisville, and a native of the Derby City. He has been covering the Cardinals in various capacities since 2017, with a brief stop in Atlanta, Ga. on the Georgia Tech beat. Also an avid video gamer, a bourbon enthusiast, and fierce dog lover. Find him on Twitter at @Matt_McGavic