How Recent Hiccups Could Impact Louisville's NCAA Tournament Draw

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - There's just a few days left in the month of February, which means just one thing: March Madness is just around the corner. We have just over two-and-a-half weeks until Selection Sunday, and the NCAA Tournament will get underway soon thereafter.

At this point in time, it's safe to call the Louisville men's basketball program a lock to make the field of 68. Currently sporting a 20-8 overall record, they could theoretically lose their final three game of the regular season and have a one-and-done showing in the ACC Tournament, and they would still make the Big Dance because of a handful of factors.

The only thing left to be determined, as it pertains to their NCAA Tournament, is their exact draw come Selection Sunday. That being said, their placement in the tournament might not end up what we thought it could be even just a week ago.

This past Thursday, members of the national media convened in Indianapolis to take part in a mock selection committee exercise at the NCAA headquarters, and used the same metrics and resumes that will be used by the actual selection committee to make their own 68-team field. Despite having suffered a 95-85 loss to SMU the night before, Louisville was still chosen by the mock committee as the No. 20 overall seed, which would slide them in as a five seed.

A couple days later, Louisville would go on to take down Georgia Tech 87-70, albeit not in the most convincing fashion. Then in their most recent outing this past Monday night, the Cardinals made the trek down to North Carolina, where a second half comeback effort was not enough to avoid a 77-74 loss.

This last stretch of games has undoubtedly negatively altered what Louisville's NCAA Tournament outlook is, and their final three games of the regular season certainly could pile on. But just how much so?

On one hand several advanced metrics still really like Louisville. They currently rank as the No. 16 in the NET, No. 17 by KenPom, No. 18 in Bart Torvik and No. 19 per EvanMiya. However, the one that is perhaps most important to monitor is Wins Above Bubble - or WAB.

Introduced last season, WAB "measures the quality of your resume based on the results," and does not take into accord margin of victory or defeat. Essentially, WAB "shows how many more or fewer wins a team has compared to what a bubble team would average against that same schedule." It's the metric that was primarily responsible for North Carolina being the last team in the 2025 field over West Virginia, as the Tar Heels had a WAB rating of 0.79 at the time of Selection Sunday, when compared to a 0.78 mark by the Mountaineers.

As of the most recent update, Louisville currently has a WAB rating of 3.85, which is good for No. 23 in Division I. While WAB isn't the sole method that the selection committee uses to seed teams, if it were, this would currently give the Cardinals a No. 6 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

This is in line with what we have seen in most bracket predictions over the last few weeks. Per BracketMatrix, a website that averages out dozens of bracket projections made by various publications and pundits, Louisville has routinely averaged out to a six-seed, occasionally peaking as high as a five- or even four-seed, but sometimes dipping as low to a seven-seed.

While Louisville would likely get a No. 6 seed if the tournament started today, therein lies a chance that they could wind up with a lower seed. Why? Because of their remaining schedule.

Following Monday's loss at North Carolina, Louisville is now 0-7 against Quad 1A teams. These are teams with a top-15 NET ranking if the game is played at home, a top-25 NET ranking if it's a neutral site, and a top-40 NET ranking if it's on the road.

Of Louisville's last three regular season games - at Clemson, vs. Syracuse and at Miami - two of them are considered Quad 1A. Clemson has a NET ranking of 38, while Miami's is 34th. Syracuse will be a Quad 3 matchup, as their NET ranking is 77th.

Considering that Louisville has yet to win a single Quad 1A game this season, and are 1-11 overall in such games under head coach Pat Kelsey, it's not out of the question for Louisville to go 1-2 in this final stretch of regular season games.

Even if they did, UofL would still be able to clinch at least a single bye in the ACC Tournament. By virtue of being undefeated against Quad 2-4 teams this season at 14-0, and even being 6-2 against Quad 1B teams, it's safe to assume that Louisville would at least win their first game in the ACC Tournament, regardless of who it is, and make the semifinals.

If they did, there's a high degree of likelihood that they would have to face another Quad 1A team in the semis. Duke (No. 1 NET) and Virginia (No. 13 NET) are the top-two teams in the ACC standings and certainly qualify as Quad 1A teams, while two of the remaining four teams with a realistic chance of a double bye - UNC (No. 25 NET) and NC State (No. 28 NET) - could finish the regular season as Quad 1A teams. Even if Louisville does get to the semifinals of the ACC Tournament, until they show a propensity of taking down those caliber of teams, it's safe to assume it won't happen.

In that case, after going 1-2 down the stretch and 1-1 in the ACC Tournament, the Cardinals would head into Selection Sunday with a 22-11 record. That's certainly a tournament team, but one that would likely earn a No. 7 or even a No. 8 seed, depending on how things shake out around the nation.

There's still a lot that can happen between now and the start of the NCAA Tournament. But given both recent and season-long trends, signs are pointing to the Cardinals earning a disappointing draw for the Big Dance.

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