Louisville's Defense Regressing Down the Stretch

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Not too long ago, the Louisville men's basketball program seemed like they were peaking at the right time.

After suffering a humiliating 31-point loss at Duke back on Jan. 26, the Cardinals responded with a five-game winning streak. In the moment, it certainly felt like this stretch of winning could last all the way up to the end of the regular season, and then used as a springboard into the postseason.

It took just three games for a lot of that optimism regarding Louisville's outlook for the postseason to completely disappear.

The aformentioned five-game winning streak came to an end one week ago today, with Louisville suffered a 95-85 loss at SMU to be denied a season sweep of the Mustangs. That was then followed up by an 87-70 home win over Georgia Tech that wasn't nearly as convincing as the final score indicates, especially considering UofL was a 23.5-point favorite. Then most recently, the Cards wilted early in the second half at North Carolina, resulting in taking a 77-74 loss.

"It's Monday, and we don't play till Saturday, so we'll dive into the tape and clean up the schematic things," head coach Pat Kelsey said following the game at UNC. "But it's our responses when things are going sideways, especially on the road, that we got to be better than we were (tonight)."

There are a bevy of factors that determine who wins and loses a basketball game. However, it's very clear why Louisville has not looked super efficient over their last three games: defense, and particularly, their paint defense.

While Louisville hasn't been a team that has leaned on their defensive efforts to win games, for the most part the season, they have looked respectable on that end of the floor. Over the first 25 games of the year, Louisville held opponents to just 40.3 percent shooting from the field, and 70.9 points per game.

This was primarily because, statistically, they were one of the better two-point defenses in the sport, allowing just 45.7 percent of their opponents' two-point tries. Add in a 32.3 percent three-point defense, it produced an opponents' effective field goal percentage of just 46.8. In fact, throughout most of the season, they have routinely ranked in the top 25-30 nationally in this area.

But over the last three games, Louisville has struggled immensely to contain opposing defenses - especially on drives to the rim. The backcourt has routinely not been able to keep players in front of them, something they were much better at during the first 25 games of the season.

That's on top of the fact that their front court already has issues on the defensive end. Both because of a lack of a physical edge when making plays around the rim, and Kelsey's unwillingness to play anything other than straight man-to-man defense, the defensive presence down lown has been a sore spot all season - and it has been amplified because of the backcourt's defensive woes.

"I think (SMU) got comfortable," Kelsey said after the SMU game. "We struggled to guard them one-on-one, they were hurting us off the bounce, getting to the rim, making tough shots ... I thought early on the game, there wasn't a lot of bite, if you will, to our defense. ... I thought their moving parts were faster than our moving parts, defensively, for the majority of the first half."

As result, Louisville has allowed SMU, Georgia Tech and North Carolina to shoot a combined 61.8 percent on two-point attempts and average 80.7 points per game. Since the start of last week, this ranks 339th out of the 365 Division I teams. For additional context, Chicago State - who sports the worst two-point defense in D1 - has allowed teams to connect on 61.0 percent of their twos this season.

Add in a slightly worse three-point defense during that stretch, giving up 33.9 percent of three attempted, and the Cardinals have posted a ghastly effective field goal defense of 58.2 percent. How bad is that? It ranks 309th in D1 over that span, and only three teams - Penn State, Saint Francis and Bellarmine - have a worse EFG over the course of the season.

What could potentially even further amplify these issues is that they could continue to get worse before getting better. Clemson, their next opponent, will be desperate to snap a four-game losing streak - especially on extra days rest. It could take a step forward in the game after the against Syracuse at home, but then they'll have their hands full once again in the regular season finale at Miami.

At 20-8 overall, Louisville's significant regression on the defensive side won't cost them a bid to the NCAA Tournament, as they're already a lock to make the Big Dance at this point. But if the Cardinals don't address this issue in a hurry, they could have yet another short stint in the tournament.

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