Tale of The Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Montana

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Grizzlies for their Saturday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

Dec 16, 2025; Knoxville, Tennessee, USA; Louisville Cardinals forward Sananda Fru (13) moves the ball against the Tennessee Volunteers during the first half at Thompson-Boling Arena at Food City Center. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-Imagn Images | Randy Sartin-Imagn Images

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (9-2, 0-0 ACC) is set to face Montana (7-5, 0-0 Big Sky) on Saturday, Dec. 20 at 12:00 p.m. EST at the KFC Yum! Center. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Grizzlies:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

Rankings

	Montana	Louisville
AP/USAT	NR/NR	11th/11th
SOS	332nd	44th
SOR	277th	16th
NET	228th	17th
RPI	259th	46th
BPI	221st	7th
KenPom	205th	14th
Torvik	196th	16th
EvanMiya	212th	18th

Team Leaders

	Montana	Louisville
Points	Money Williams (19.4)	Ryan Conwell (19.6)
Rebounds	Te'jon Sawyer (5.4)	Sananda Fru (6.1)
Assists	Money Williams (6.1)	Mikel Brown Jr. (5.1)
Steals	Tyler Isaak (1.0)	Kobe Rodgers (1.3)
Blocks	Tyler Thompson (0.6)	Sananda Fru (1.2)

Scoring

	Montana	Louisville
Points Per Game	83.2	91.4
Field Goal %	50.5	47.0
FGM/FGA Per Game	29.1/57.6	29.6/63.0
Three Point %	35.5	36.0
3PTM/3PTA	8.6/24.2	12.6/35.1
Free Throw %	72.7	76.7
FTM/FTA Per Game	16.4/22.6	19.5/25.4

Rebounding

	Montana	Louisville
Rebounds Per Game	39.3	41.5
Off. Reb. Per Game	8.7	12.6
Def. Reb. Per Game	30.7	28.8
Rebound Margin	6.0	6.9

Defense

	Montana	Louisville
Opp. Points Per Game	73.2	69.5
Opp. FG%	41.8	39.1
Opp. 3PT%	29.4	30.2
Steals Per Game	5.3	7.8
Blocks Per Game	2.8	3.5
Turnovers Forced Per Game	10.8	13.6

Ball Handling

	Montana	Louisville
Assists Per Game	17.0	18.6
Turnovers Per Game	14.1	11.4
Turnover Margin	-3.3	2.2
Assist/Turnover Ratio	1.21	1.63

Predictions

- ESPN Prediction: Per ESPN's Basketball Power Index, the Cardinals have a 99 percent chance to win against the Grizzlies. Louisville has a BPI rating of 20.9 (7th overall), whereas Montana has a BPI rating of -3.8 (221st overall).

- KenPom Prediction: Per KenPom.com, the Cardinals have a 99 percent chance to take down the Grizzlies, with a projected final score of 96-71 in favor of UofL. Louisville has an adjusted efficiency margin of +25.51 (14th overall), whereas Montana has an adjusted efficiency margin of -3.93 (205th overall).

- Torvik Prediction: Per BartTorvik.com, the Cards have a 98 percent chance to take down the Grizz, with a projected final score of 98-69 in favor of UofL. Louisville has a "Barthag" of .9384 (16th overall), whereas Montana has a "Barthag" of .4113 (196th overall).

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 94, Montana 71.

(Photo of Sananda Fru: Randy Sartin - Imagn Images)

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