Tale of The Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Cal

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Golden Bears for their Tuesday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

Mar 5, 2025; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; California Golden Bears guard Jovan Blacksher Jr. (10) dribbles against Louisville Cardinals guard J'Vonne Hadley (1) during the first half at KFC Yum! Center. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images | Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (10-2, 0-0 ACC) is set to face Cal (12-1, 0-0 ACC) on Tuesday, Dec. 30 at 9:00 p.m. EST at the Haas Pavilion. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Golden Bears:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

Rankings

	Cal	Louisville
AP/USAT	RV/RV	16th/14th
SOS	318th	91st
SOR	32nd	16th
NET	46th	17th
RPI	49th	53rd
BPI	72nd	7th
KenPom	57th	14th
Torvik	61st	14th
EvanMiya	57th	18th

Team Leaders

	Cal	Louisville
Points	Dai Dai Ames (17.7)	Ryan Conwell (19.2)
Rebounds	Lee Dort (7.6)	Sananda Fru (6.3)
Assists	Justin Pippen (4.3)	Mikel Brown Jr. (5.1)
Steals	Justin Pippen (1.7)	Two Tied (1.3)
Blocks	Lee Dort (1.2)	Sananda Fru (1.3)

Scoring

	Cal	Louisville
Points Per Game	83.1	91.6
Field Goal %	47.5	47.5
FGM/FGA Per Game	27.8/58.5	30.0/63.2
Three Point %	38.8	36.0
3PTM/3PTA Per Game	9.3/24.0	12.6/35.0
Free Throw %	78.5	76.5
FTM/FTA Per Game	18.2/23.2	19.0/24.8

Rebounding

	Cal	Louisville
Rebounds Per Game	36.0	42.0
Off. Reb. Per Game	9.8	12.8
Def. Reb. Per Game	26.2	29.3
Rebound Margin	2.0	8.2

Defense

	Cal	Louisville
Opp. Points Per Game	66.7	68.2
Opp. FG%	40.7	38.6
Opp. 3PT%	30.8	30.1
Steals Per Game	6.5	8.3
Blocks Per Game	4.2	3.4
Turnovers Forced Per Game	13.3	14.1

Ball Handling

	Cal	Louisville
Assists Per Game	15.2	19.1
Turnovers Per Game	10.1	11.6
Turnover Margin	3.2	2.5
Assist/Turnover Ratio	1.51	1.65

Predictions

- ESPN Prediction: Per ESPN's Basketball Power Index, the Cardinals have a 84.3 percent chance to win against the Golden Bears. Louisville has a BPI rating of 21.3 (7th overall), whereas Cal has a BPI rating of 8.1 (72nd overall).

- KenPom Prediction: Per KenPom.com, the Cardinals have a 70 percent chance to take down the Golden Bears, with a projected final score of 83-77 in favor of UofL. Louisville has an adjusted efficiency margin of +26.07 (14th overall), whereas Cal has an adjusted efficiency margin of +13.20 (57th overall).

- Torvik Prediction: Per BartTorvik.com, the Cards have a 70 percent chance to take down the Bears, with a projected final score of 82-76 in favor of UofL. Louisville has a "Barthag" of .9403 (14th overall), whereas Montana has a "Barthag" of .7889 (61st overall).

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 85, Cal 75.

(Photo of J'Vonne Hadley: Jamie Rhodes - Imagn Images)

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