Tale of The Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. North Carolina

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Tar Heels for their Monday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

Louisville Cardinals forward Kasean Pryor (7) dribbles the ball up court with under a minute to play as the Louisville Cardinals host the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in an NCAA basketball game at the KFC Yum! Center, Saturday, Feb. 21, 2026, in Louisville. | Jeff Faughender/Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (20-7, 9-5 ACC) is set to face North Carolina (21-6, 9-5 ACC) on Monday, Feb. 23 at 7:00 p.m. EST from the Dean E. Smith Center in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Tar Heels:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

Rankings

	North Carolina	Louisville
AP/USAT	16th/20th	21st/21st
SOS	44th	43rd
SOR	23rd	25th
NET	28th	13th
RPI	11th	25th
BPI	32nd	10th
KenPom	29th	15th
Torvik	27th	14th
EvanMiya	28th	19th

Team Leaders

	North Carolina	Louisville
Points	Caleb Wilson (19.8)	Mikel Brown Jr. (18.6)
Rebounds	Caleb Wilson (9.4)	Sananda Fru (6.5)
Assists	Kyan Evans (2.8)	Mikel Brown Jr. (4.9)
Steals	Caleb Wilson (1.5)	Mikel Brown Jr. (1.3)
Blocks	Caleb Wilson (1.4)	Sananda Fru (1.4)

Scoring

	North Carolina	Louisville
Points Per Game	80.7	86.8
Field Goal%	47.2	47.3
FGM/FGA Per Game	28.2/59.8	29.1/61.5
Three Point %	33.6	36.1
3PTM/3PTA Per Game	8.4/25.1	11.8/32.6
Free Throw %	68.6	77.9
FTM/FTA Per Game	15.9/23.1	16.8/21.6

Rebounding

	North Carolina	Louisville
Rebounds Per Game	38.8	39.4
Off. Reb. Per Game	11.2	11.6
Def. Reb. Per Game	27.6	27.8
Rebound Margin	4.5	6.0

Defense

	North Carolina	Louisville
Opp. Points Per Game	70.6	71.8
Opp. FG%	41.3	41.2
Opp. 3PT%	33.9	32.3
Steals Per Game	5.5	7.1
Blocks Per Game	3.5	3.3
Turnovers Forced Per Game	9.5	12.3

Ball Handling

	North Carolina	Louisville
Assists Per Game	16.3	17.8
Turnovers Per Game	9.4	12.0
Turnover Margin	0.1	0.3
Assist/Turnover Ratio	1.73	1.48

Predictions

- ESPN Prediction: Per ESPN's Basketball Power Index, the Cardinals have a 59.3 percent chance to win against the Tar Heels. Louisville has a BPI rating of 20.0 (10th overall), whereas North Carolina has a BPI rating of 14.6 (32nd overall).

- KenPom Prediction: Per KenPom.com, the Cardinals have a 50 percent chance to take down the Tar Heels, with a projected final score of 81-80 in favor of UofL. Louisville has an adjusted efficiency margin of +26.52 (15th overall), whereas North Carolina has an adjusted efficiency margin of +21.04 (29th overall).

- Torvik Prediction: Per BartTorvik.com, the Cards have a 49 percent chance to take down the Heels, with a projected final score of 81-80 in favor of UNC. Louisville has a "Barthag" of .9409 (14th overall), whereas North Carolina has a "Barthag" of .8995 (27th overall).

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 84, North Carolina 83.

(Photo of Kasean Pryor: Jeff Faughender - Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)

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