Tale of The Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Duke

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Blue Devils for their Friday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

Mar 15, 2025; Charlotte, NC, USA; Louisville Cardinals guard J'Vonne Hadley (1) drives against Duke Blue Devils guard Tyrese Proctor (5) in the second half of the 2025 ACC Conference Championship game at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (11-3, 1-1 ACC) is set to face Duke (13-1, 2-0 ACC) on Tuesday, Jan. 6 at 7:00 p.m. EST at the KFC Yum! Center. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Blue Devils:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

Rankings

	Duke	Louisville
AP/USAT	5th/6th	13th/16th
SOS	27th	38th
SOR	9th	28th
NET	7th	14th
RPI	10th	26th
BPI	2nd	8th
KenPom	9th	12th
Torvik	12th	11th
EvanMiya

Team Leaders

	Duke	Louisville
Points	Cameron Boozer (23.0)	Ryan Conwell (19.6)
Rebounds	Cameron Boozer (9.8)	Sananda Fru (6.9)
Assists	Cameron Boozer (4.2)	Mikel Brown Jr. (5.1)
Steals	Cameron Boozer (1.9)	Ryan Conwell (1.4)
Blocks	Patrick Ngongba (1.6)	Sananda Fru (1.4)

Scoring

	Duke	Louisville
Points Per Game	87.3	90.4
Field Goal %	49.8	47.1
FGM/FGA Per Game	29.6/59.4	29.9/63.4
Three Point %	35.4	35.3
3PTM/3PTA Per Game	9.9/28.1	12.2/34.6
Free Throw %	71.6	77.5
FTM/FTA Per Game	18.2/25.4	18.4/23.8

Rebounding

	Duke	Louisville
Rebounds Per Game	41.4	42.4
Off. Reb. Per Game	12.6	13.3
Def. Reb. Per Game	41.4	29.1
Rebound Margin	10.5	9.0

Defense

	Duke	Louisville
Opp. Points Per Game	65.5	69.1
Opp. FG%	38.5	38.8
Opp. 3PT%	30.3	31.5
Steals Per Game	8.1	7.6
Blocks Per Game	4.6	3.7
Turnovers Forced Per Game	13.5	13.3

Ball Handling

	Duke	Louisville
Assists Per Game	18.3	18.5
Turnovers Per Game	11.6	11.5
Turnover Margin	2.9	1.8
Assist/Turnover Ratio	1.58	1.61

Predictions

- ESPN Prediction: Per ESPN's Basketball Power Index, the Cardinals have an 54.8 percent chance to win against the Blue Devils. Louisville has a BPI rating of 21.1 (8th overall), whereas Duke has a BPI rating of 23.1 (2nd overall).

- KenPom Prediction: Per KenPom.com, the Cardinals have a 55 percent chance to take down the Blue Devils, with a projected final score of 82-81 in favor of UofL. Louisville has an adjusted efficiency margin of +26.07 (12th overall), whereas Duke has an adjusted efficiency margin of +28.91 (9th overall).

- Torvik Prediction: Per BartTorvik.com, the Cards have a 66 percent chance to take down the Devils, with a projected final score of 84-79 in favor of UofL. Louisville has a "Barthag" of .9439 (11th overall), whereas Duke has a "Barthag" of .9407 (12th overall).

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 80, Duke 79.

(Photo of J'Vonne Hadley: Bob Donnan - Imagn Images)

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