Tale of The Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. SMU

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Mustangs for their Saturday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

Jan 21, 2025; Dallas, Texas, USA; Louisville Cardinals forward Aboubacar Traore (25) looks to pass the ball as SMU Mustangs forward Yohan Traore (21) applies the defensive pressure during the first half at Moody Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images | Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (14-6, 4-4 ACC) is set to face SMU (15-5, 4-3 ACC) on Saturday, Jan. 31 at 2:00 p.m. EST at the KFC Yum! Center. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Mustangs:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

Rankings

	SMU	Louisville
AP/USAT	RV/RV	20th/20th
SOS	42nd	39th
SOR	29th	35th
NET	31st	19th
RPI	19th	33rd
BPI	40th	10th
KenPom	37th	19th
Torvik	33rd	18th
EvanMiya	36th	22nd

Team Leaders

	SMU	Louisville
Points	Boopie Miller (19.4)	Ryan Conwell (19.4)
Rebounds	Samet Yigitoglu (8.1)	Sananda Fru (6.9)
Assists	Boopie Miller (6.7)	Mikel Brown Jr. (5.1)
Steals	B.J. Edwards (2.6)	Ryan Conwell (1.3)
Blocks	Samet Yigitoglu (1.6)	Sananda Fru (1.3)

Scoring

	SMU	Louisville
Points Per Game	87.3	86.0
Field Goal %	49.4	46.2
FGM/FGA Per Game	31.2/63.1	28.8/62.4
Three Point %	36.6	35.2
3PTM/3PTA Per Game	7.9/21.6	11.9/33.9
Free Throw %	76.9	76.9
FTM/FTA Per Game	17.0/22.1	16.5/21.5

Rebounding

	SMU	Louisville
Rebounds Per Game	38.4	40.7
Off. Reb. Per Game	12.4	12.5
Def. Reb. Per Game	26.0	28.2
Rebound Margin	3.8	6.5

Defense

	SMU	Louisville
Opp. Points Per Game	77.0	70.3
Opp. FG%	42.8	39.9
Opp. 3PT%	32.1	33.5
Steals Per Game	7.7	7.3
Blocks Per Game	4.0	3.3
Turnovers Forced Per Game	13.2	12.6

Ball Handling

	SMU	Louisville
Assists Per Game	17.8	17.5
Turnovers Per Game	11.6	11.6
Turnover Margin	1.6	1.0
Assist/Turnover Ratio	1.53	1.52

Predictions

- ESPN Prediction: Per ESPN's Basketball Power Index, the Cardinals have an 83.7 percent chance to win against the Mustangs. Louisville has a BPI rating of 19.6 (10th overall), whereas SMU has a BPI rating of 13.1 (40th overall).

- KenPom Prediction: Per KenPom.com, the Cardinals have a 74 percent chance to take down the Mustangs, with a projected final score of 86-79 in favor of UofL. Louisville has an adjusted efficiency margin of +24.74 (19th overall), whereas SMU has an adjusted efficiency margin of +19.56 (37th overall).

- Torvik Prediction: Per BartTorvik.com, the Cards have an 78 percent chance to take down the Mustangs, with a projected final score of 87-78 in favor of SMU. Louisville has a "Barthag" of .9386 (18th overall), whereas SMU has a "Barthag" of .8870 (33rd overall).

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 85, SMU 81.

(Photo via Raymond Carlin III - Imagn Images)

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