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Louisville's Three Keys to Defeating Michigan State in the NCAA Tournament

Here are the three main ways that the Cardinals can take down the Spartans and reach the Sweet 16.
Mar 19, 2026; Buffalo, NY, USA; Louisville Cardinals guard Ryan Conwell (3) drives to the basket for a lay up during the first half against the South Florida Bulls during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Keybank Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images
Mar 19, 2026; Buffalo, NY, USA; Louisville Cardinals guard Ryan Conwell (3) drives to the basket for a lay up during the first half against the South Florida Bulls during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Keybank Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - A trip to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament is just one win away for the Louisville men's basketball program. If the sixth-seeded Cardinals are to reach the Sweet 16, they'll have to take down Tom Izzo and his Michigan State squad. Tip-off against the third-seeded Spartans from the KeyBank Center in Buffalo, N.Y. is scheduled for Saturday, Mar. 21 at 2:45 p.m. EST.

Here are the three keys to victory for the Cardinals:

Limit Jeremy Fears Jr.'s Impact

This is most certainly easier said than done. Jeremy Fears Jr. is one of the top point guards in all of college basketball not just from a scoring standpoint, but because of his overall impact on Michigan State's offensive flow.

For starters, the First-Team All-Big Ten and Second-Team AP All-American guard is the nation's leader in assists at 9.2 per game, and is coming off of a game against North Dakota State where he had 11 of them. Oh, and he's also Michigan State's top scorer at 15.4 points per game. In fact, of MSU's 915 made field goals this season, Fears had made or assisted on 454 of them. That's 49.6 percent.

Fears is someone whose best work comes on dribble penetration, which is an area where Louisville had certainly struggled at times this season. If the Cardinals can limit Fears' ability to get to the lane, or cut off his passing lanes if he does touch paint, that's a good first step to being able to come out on top.

Continue Placing an Emphasis on the Glass

Like South Florida, Michigan State is one of the best teams in the nation at rebounding - especially when it comes to limiting their opponent in this capacity. The Spartans not only haul in the 27th-most rebounds per game at 39.7, but their 28.3 opponent rebounds per game is tops in D1. Their 22.3 opponent offensive rebounding rate is also the best in the nation.

That being said, Louisville more than held their own against a USF team that entered the tournament as the second-best rebounding team in the nation. The Cardinals actually out-rebounded the Bulls 41-to-37, and held them to only 15 second chance points.

You could tell as the game was unfolding that one of UofL's primary emphasis against USF was crashing the boards. Sananda Fru, who had been struggling over the last month, played one of his best games of the year with 10 points and 10 rebounds. Vangelis Zougris had six points and six rebounds in just 10 minutes - and helped set the tone early.

"We just had a big emphasis on boxing them out," Fru said after the game. "They're a great team, especially the offensive rebounds on the offensive side. We put a bit emphasis on everybody hit, create a pocket to get the loose balls. I felt like my teammates and me did a good job to create these kind of pockets and gave me a great chance to grab the boards. And on the defensive end, we emphasized just to crash and be super aggressive. Everybody going in and fighting for loose balls just to make it super aggressive."

Push the Pace Without Getting Sloppy

As far as playing styles go, Louisville and Michigan State are pretty much on the opposite end of the spectrum. Pat Kelsey likes his Cardinals to operate at a fast pace and rain threes, while Tom Izzo coaches his Spartans to slow the game down and play a tough-nosed brand of hoops.

On paper, you'd think that this matchup doesn't favor the Cards. Their offensive tempo ranks 19th in the country, while's Sparty's defensive tempo ranks 342nd of the 365 teams in D1. That being said, there is a way that Louisville can find success.

While MSU does a good job at slowing teams down (mainly because of denying drives to the paint), it comes in spite of the fact that they aren't great at forcing turnovers. Their 10.0 forced per game ranks just 316th in D1, and their 7.6 steal percentage is only 323rd.

Louisville has been prone to turning the ball over at a ridiculous rate, as they're coming off of a 22-turnover game vs. USF. But it was mainly because of the full court press - something that Michigan State doesn't really do. If the Cards can speed the Spartans up, there's a good chance that they won't be penalized in the turnover department.

Even if their fast pace doesn't result in much success getting to the rim, Louisville can still get the job done ont he perimeter. 45.9 of the total field goal attempts against Michigan State have been three-pointers, and while Sparty has held their opponents to 32.6 percent from deep, the Cards are still shooting 36.1 percent on threes - including a 13-of-25 performance vs. South Florida.

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(Photo of Ryan Conwell: Mark Konezny - Imagn Images)

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Matthew McGavic
MATTHEW MCGAVIC

McGavic is a 2016 Sport Administration graduate of the University of Louisville, and a native of the Derby City. He has been covering the Cardinals in various capacities since 2017, with a brief stop in Atlanta, Ga. on the Georgia Tech beat. Also an avid video gamer, a bourbon enthusiast, and fierce dog lover. Find him on Twitter at @Matt_McGavic