How Early Results Across College Football Impact Louisville's Season Outlook

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - College football is officially off and running. We're now two weeks into the 2025 season (three if you want to count week zero), and all across the sport, despite the relatively small sample size, the season outlook for a number of teams has altered dramatically.

While Louisville might not fall into that category considering they haven't faced a power conference opponent yet, we're already starting to form some opinions based on how they have looked against Eastern Kentucky and James Madison. The offense, perceived to be the Cardinals' strength, has been up-and-down at times. Meanwhile, the defense, which was viewed to be lagging behind the other side of the line of scrimmage, is off to an incredibly hot start to the season.

We don't have super definitive opinions on Louisville just yet, considering their 2-0 mark has come against Eastern Kentucky and James Madison. But when you look at the remaining opponents on their schedule, our perception for a lot of them has changed drastically. Miami does indeed look like the real deal. Clemson and SMU don't appear as stout as previously thought. Pitt and Cal might be better than we expected. Virginia Tech, well... looks atrocious.

Between how Louisville has fared through the first two weeks of the season, on top of how their future opponent have as well, how has that impacted their overall outlook for the year? It might be an imperfect way of determining it, but we can formulate an educated guess thanks to the predictive college football metrics FPI and SP+.

SP+ is a "tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency," which takes into account three primary factors: returning production, recent recruiting and recent history. As for FPI, it's a "predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward," vaguely similar to SP+.

We might have just two weeks of data under our belt, but the FPI and SP+ numbers - for both Louisville and their opponents - have changed dramatically.

We'll start with FPI first. In the preseason, with a rating of 6.7, Louisville ranked as just the No. 5 team in the ACC and No. 38 in all of the FBS. Through two weeks, while Louisville's FPI rating is now 6.8, they fell to No. 6 team in the league and No. 41 team in the FBS.

That being said, the FPI ratings and rankings for everyone on the Cardinals' schedule have changed in some form or fashion, which as expected, has changed the expected various win percentages. Below, we have listed the preseason FPI rankings for every future opponent and UofL's chance to win, compared to what those respective numbers look like now:

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Team	Preseason FPI Rating (Rank)	Preseason UofL Win %	Current FPI Rating (Rank)	Current UofL Win %
Bowling Green	-9.3 (104th)	90.2	-7.4 (95th)	89.7
Pitt	2.4 (58th)	54.3	5.2 (50th)	44.7
Virginia	1.2 (63rd)	75.8	4.4 (54th)	63.4
Miami	17.5 (9th)	23.1	13.0 (22nd)	24.7
Boston College	4.1 (50th)	69.9	4.6 (52nd)	65.0
Virginia Tech	9.2 (26th	38.9	2.3 (60th)	56.8
Cal	2.2 (60th)	79.9	1.1 (63rd)	76.7
Clemson	17.3 (11th)	35.5	9.2 (32nd)	49.0
SMU	12.1 (20th)	26.1	8.5 (35th	34.0
Kentucky	7.6 (34th)	58.5	4.9 (51st)	55.9

In the preseason, FPI projected Louisville's win/loss record to be 6.7-5.3, while giving them just a 1.7 percent chance to win the ACC, and an 4.4 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff. While the overall season outlook by FPI is still underwhelming when compared to the program's expectations, these number did improve.

Now, the FPI projects Louisville's win/loss record at 7.6-4.5. It also gives the Cardinals a 4.2 percent chance to win the ACC, and an 4.7 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff.

While the FPI metric was not and it still not super high on Louisville overall, the SP+ metric is the complete opposite. In the preseason, with a rating of 12.3, the Cardinals ranked as the No. 4 team in the ACC and No. 24 in all of the FBS. Two weeks later, UofL's SP+ rating is much improved at 15.3, and they are now considered the top-rated team in the league and No. 20 team in the FBS.

Like with FPI, the SP+ ratings and rankings changes for everyone on Louisville's future schedule has dramatically altered the game-by-game win percentages. Below, we have listed the preseason SP+ rankings for every future opponent and UofL's chance to win, compared to what those respective numbers look like now, as well as a chart depicting the statistical likelihood of every outcome during and concluding the season:

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Team	Preseason SP+ Rating (Rank)	Preseason UofL Win %	Current SP+ Rating (Rank)	Current UofL Win %
Bowling Green	-14.4 (112th)	95.71	-11.1 (106th)	95.54
Pitt	4.7 (51st)	61.79	10.8 (36th)	54.68
Virginia	-2.2 (74th)	84.13	1.9 (65th)	82.52
Miami	18.1 (14th)	31.27	14.2 (27th)	46.72
Boston College	1.6 (62nd)	78.13	5.4 (56th)	76.71
Virginia Tech	6.9 (42nd)	56.77	-1.3 (74th)	79.66
Cal	1.2 (64th)	78.81	6.2 (52nd)	75.25
Clemson	20.2 (10th)	37.54	13.1 (31st)	60.89
SMU	14.6 (19th)	38.88	9.6 (39th)	57.47
Kentucky	6.5 (44th)	68.73	7.5 (44th)	72.77

Louisville SP+ chart through two weeks of the 2025 season | Matthew McGavic - Louisville Cardinals On SI

From a game-by-game basis, SP+ paints a much more optimistic outlook on Louisville's 2025 season than it did just a month ago. In fact, by current SP+ ratings, the only remaining game in which the Cardinals are underdogs is their game at Miami - and even then, it's bordering fairly close on a toss-up. Their games against Clemson and SMU went from being very clear underdogs, and somewhat notable favorites. Of their 10 remaining games, UofL's win percentage is 70 or greater in six of them.

As you can imagine, this has had a profound effect on what Louisville's end-of-year record will be. In the preseason, they sported an expected wins mark of 8.06. Now, that number is all the way up to 9.02. Essentially, according to both the FPI and SP+, Louisville has gained one additional win on their expected overall record for the 2025 season.

Of course, as we all know, games are not played out on paper. Whether it's Louisville or any of their opponents, there is plenty of time for momentum to shift in either direction. No to mention that, considering this chaotic nature of college football, upsets and surprises happen with regularity.

But if both the Cardinals and the teams on their schedule continue to follow some of these early season trends, therein lies a very good chance that Louisville will have a special season in year three under head coach Jeff Brohm.

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