Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Eastern Kentucky

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Colonels for their Saturday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

Louisville Cardinals running back Keyjuan Brown (22) rushes down the field during their game against the Austin Peay Governors on Saturday, Aug. 31, 2024 at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium in Louisville, Ky. | Clare Grant/Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (0-0, 0-0 ACC) is set to face Eastern Kentucky (0-0, 0-0 UAC) on Saturday, Aug. 30 at 3:00 p.m. EST at L&N Stadium in Louisville, Ky. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Colonels:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

Rankings

	Eastern Kentucky	Louisville
AP/USAT	NR/NR	RV/RV
CFP	N/A	N/A
SOS	N/A	N/A
SOR	N/A	N/A
SP+	NR	24th
FPI	NR	38th
Sagarin	170th	17th
Kelley Ford	NR	26th

Offensive Statistics (2024)

	Eastern Kentucky	Louisville
Total Offense	70th (347.8)	13th (449.2)
Yards Per Play	5.27	5th (6.85)
Scoring Offense	84th (22.4)	9th (36.5)
Passing Yards	104th (161.5)	26th (264.1)
Yards Per Completion	86th (11.05)	39th (12.67)
Rushing Yards	26th (186.3)	33rd (185.2)
Yards Per Rush Attempt	4.62	8th (5.65)
First Downs Gained	34th (256)	51st (276)
3rd Down Con. %	24th (44.1%)	71st (40.0%)
4th Down Con. %	85th (44.4%)	115th (40.9%)
Red Zone Con. %	83rd (76.7%)	87th (81.8%)
Turnovers Lost	41st (15)	15th (11)
Interceptions Thrown	35th (8)	6th (6)
Fumbles Lost	62nd (7)	24th (5)
Tackles For Loss Allowed	57th (5.69)	18th (4.23)
Sacks Allowed	29th (1.46)	17th (1.15)
Avg. Time of Possession	23rd (31:27)	75th (29:50)

Key (EKU): National Rank out of 123 FCS Teams (Value)
Key (UofL): National Rank out of 133 FBS Teams (Value)

Defensive Statistics (2024)

	Eastern Kentucky	Louisville
Total Defense	81st (388.0)	64th (368.7)
Yards Allowed Per Play	5.87	55th (5.41)
Scoring Defense	42nd (23.7)	56th (24.1)
Passing Yards Allowed	94th (239.4)	100th (236.2)
Rushing Yards Allowed	57th (148.6)	40th (132.5)
First Downs Allowed	105th (275)	61st (250)
3rd Down Defensive %	78th (41.8%)	36th (35.8%)
4th Down Defensive %	88th (56.5%)	116th (65.6%)
Red Zone Defensive %	48th (79.6%)	67th (82.9%)
Turnovers Gained	37th (19)	67th (17)
Interceptions Caught	44th (11)	70th (10)
Fumbles Recovered	35th (8)	54th (7)
TFL Per Game	105th (4.5)	28th (6.7)
Sacks Per Game	109th (1.31)	30th (2.62)

Key (EKU): National Rank out of 123 FCS Teams (Value)
Key (UofL): National Rank out of 133 FBS Teams (Value)

Special Teams Statistics (2024):

	Eastern Kentucky	Louisville
Net Punting	50th (37.65)	97th (37.44)
Avg. Kickoff Return	45th (20.67)	67th (20.25)
Avg. Kickoff Return Def.	73rd (21.21)	22nd (17.74)
Avg. Punt Return	7th (14.27)	101st (5.62)
Avg. Punt Return Def.	94th (10.72)	33rd (5.27)
Field Goal Attempts	9-13	18-25
PAT	34-35	60-60

Key (EKU): National Rank out of 123 FCS Teams (Value)
Key (UofL): National Rank out of 133 FBS Teams (Value)

Predictions:

- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 97.8 percent chance to win against the Colonels. Louisville has an FPI rating of 6.7 (38th overall), whereas Eastern Kentucky does not have an FPI rating (FCS).

- SP+ Prediction: Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 97.97 percent chance to take down the Colonels. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 12.3 (24th overall), whereas Eastern Kentucky does not have an SP+ rating (FCS).

- Kelley Ford Prediction: Per the Kelley Ford ratings, the Cardinals have a 99 percent chance to defeat the Colonels. Louisville has a KFord rating of 10.5 (26th overall), whereas Eastern Kentucky does not have an KFord rating (FCS).

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 52, Eastern Kentucky 7.

(Photo of Keyjuan Brown: Clare Grant - Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK)

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