Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. SMU

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Mustangs for their Saturday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

Oct 5, 2024; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Louisville Cardinals linebacker Stanquan Clark (6) and defensive back Tamarion McDonald (12) try to strip the ball from Southern Methodist Mustangs running back Brashard Smith (1) during the second half at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images | Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (7-3, 4-3 ACC) is set to face SMU (4-3, 5-1 ACC) on Saturday, Nov. 22 at 12:00 p.m. EST at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, Texas. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Mustangs:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

Rankings

	SMU	Louisville
AP/USAT	RV/RV	RV/RV
CFP	NR	NR
SOS	67th	59th
SOR	37th	35th
SP+	26th	27th
FPI	25th	35th
Sagarin	23rd	29th
Kelley Ford	27th	31st
CFB Graphs	36th	35th

Offensive Statistics

	SMU	Louisville
Total Offense	53rd (406.6)	59th (399.8)
Yards Per Play	34th (6.20)	40th (6.07)
Scoring Offense	39th (32.2)	45th (31.5)
Passing Yards	17th (284.5)	52nd (243.3)
Yards Per Completion	44th (12.37)	98th (10.77)
Rushing Yards	106th (122.1)	71st (156.5)
Yards Per Rush Attempt	89th (4.04)	21st (5.11)
First Downs Gained	81st (200)	86th (197)
3rd Down Con. %	96th (37.0)	84th (38.3)
4th Down Con. %	44th (60.0)	105th (44.4)
Red Zone Con. %	52nd (87.5)	29th (90.0)
Turnovers Lost	94th (15)	94th (15)
Interceptions Thrown	82nd (9)	67th (8)
Fumbles Lost	80th (6)	103rd (7)
Tackles For Loss Allowed	98th (5.80)	65th (5.30)
Sacks Allowed	49th (1.60)	79th (2.00)
Avg. Time of Possession	131st (26:22)	55th (30:23)

Key: National Rank out of 136 FBS Teams (Value)

Defensive Statistics

	SMU	Louisville
Total Defense	98th (400.7)	16th (297.9)
Yards Allowed Per Play	43rd (5.18)	15th (4.64)
Scoring Defense	31st (20.4)	39th (21.5)
Passing Yards Allowed	133th (298.6)	26th (188.0)
Rushing Yards Allowed	15th (102.1)	23rd (109.9)
First Downs Allowed	103rd (218)	15th (162)
3rd Down Def. %	33rd (34.5)	18th (31.7)
4th Down Def. %	75th (55.9)	15th (39.1)
Red Zone Def. %	2nd (65.8)	47th (81.5)
Turnovers Gained	1st (26)	24th (17)
Interceptions Caught	4th (16)	12th (12)
Fumbles Recovered	4th (10)	56th (5)
TFL Per Game	19th (6.7)	82nd (5.2)
Sacks Per Game	6th (3.20)	70th (2.00)

Key: National Rank out of 136 FBS Teams (Value)

Special Teams Statistics

	SMU	Louisville
Net Punting	62nd (39.89)	122nd (36.02)
Avg. Kickoff Return	80th (20.18)	30th (23.46)
Avg. Kickoff Return Def.	73rd (20.33)	42nd (18.62)
Avg. Punt Return	50th (9.93)	4th (20.52)
Avg. Punt Return Def.	19th (3.87)	20th (3.88)
Field Goal Attempts	13-21	19-24
PAT	37-39	32-34

Key: National Rank out of 136 FBS Teams (Value)

Predictions:

- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 32.3 percent chance to win against the Mustangs. Louisville has an FPI rating of 8.6 (35th overall), whereas SMU has an FPI rating of 11.0 (25th overall)

- SP+ Prediction: Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 43 percent chance to take down the Mustangs. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 12.1 (27th overall), whereas SMU has an SP+ rating of 12.2 (26th overall).

- Sagarin Prediction: Per Jeff Sagarin's ratings, the Cardinals have an 34 percent chance to defeat the Mustangs. Louisville has a Sagarin rating of 79.85 (29th overall), whereas SMU has a Sagarin rating of 82.40 (23rd overall)

- Kelley Ford Prediction: Per the Kelley Ford ratings, the Cardinals have a 34 percent chance to defeat the Mustangs. Louisville has a KFord rating of 10.0 (31st overall), whereas SMU has a KFord rating of 11.1 (27th overall)

- College Football Graphs Prediction: Per College Football Graph's EPA Margin metric, the Cardinals have a 48.8 percent chance to take down the Mustangs. Louisville has an EPA Margin of 0.129 (35th overall), whereas SMU has an EPA Margin rating of 0.123 (36th overall).

- Personal Prediction: SMU 24, Louisville 21.

(Photo of Stanquan Clark, Brashard Smith: Jamie Rhodes - Imagn Images)

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