Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Toledo

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Rockets in the Boca Raton Bowl, and who the statistical models favor:

Louisville Cardinals defensive lineman Clev Lubin (50) celebrates his tackle of Clemson Tigers quarterback Cade Klubnik (2) in the first half at L&N Stadium Friday, Nov. 14, 2025. | Matt Stone/Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (8-4, 4-4 ACC) is set to face Toledo (8-4, 6-2 MAC) in the Boca Raton Bowl on Tuesday, Dec. 23 at 2:00 p.m. EST at Flagler Credit Union Stadium in Boca Raton, Fla. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Rockets:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

Rankings

	Toledo	Louisville
AP/USAT	NR/NR	RV/RV
CFP	NR	NR
SOS	128th	53rd
SOR	76th	36th
SP+	38th	29th
FPI	52nd	29th
Sagarin	54th	27th
Kelley Ford	56th	31st
CFB Graphs	50th	38th

Offensive Statistics

	Toledo	Louisville
Total Offense	31st (421.8)	69th (388.8)
Yards Per Play	28th (6.30)	38th (5.99)
Scoring Offense	38th (31.6)	45th (30.2)
Passing Yards	51st (244.0)	65th (226.3)
Yards Per Completion	46th (12.25)	101st (10.77)
Rushing Yards	44th (177.8)	65th (162.6)
Yards Per Rush Attempt	29th (4.94)	23rd (5.07)
First Downs Gained	52nd (255)	86th (235)
3rd Down Con. %	55th (41.0)	94th (36.9)
4th Down Con. %	133rd (18.8)	69th (54.4)
Red Zone Con. %	119th (75.5)	13th (92.1)
Turnovers Lost	49th (14)	75th (16)
Interceptions Thrown	71st (10)	60th (9)
Fumbles Lost	16th (4)	77th (7)
Tackles For Loss Allowed	37th (4.75)	68th (5.33)
Sacks Allowed	13th (1.08)	75th (1.92)
Avg. Time of Possession	62nd (30:08)	54th (30:22)

Key: National Rank out of 136 FBS Teams (Value)

Defensive Statistics

	Toledo	Louisville
Total Defense	3rd (247.8)	16th (300.3)
Yards Allowed Per Play	1st (3.91)	15th (4.69)
Scoring Defense	4th (12.2)	35th (21.1)
Passing Yards Allowed	8th (158.4)	27th (190.6)
Rushing Yards Allowed	8th (89.3)	22nd (109.8)
First Downs Allowed	3rd (168)	15th (200)
3rd Down Def. %	5th (29.9)	20th (33.3)
4th Down Def. %	11th (37.0)	14th (37.5)
Red Zone Def. %	3rd (68.0)	67th (83.9)
Turnovers Gained	25th (20)	36th (19)
Interceptions Caught	23rd (13)	16th (14)
Fumbles Recovered	44th (7)	79th (5)
TFL Per Game	5th (7.4)	60th (5.6)
Sacks Per Game	13th (2.92)	50th (2.25)

Key: National Rank out of 136 FBS Teams (Value)

Special Teams Statistics

	Toledo	Louisville
Net Punting	108th (37.37)	113th (37.09)
Avg. Kickoff Return	42nd (22.29)	33rd (22.69)
Avg. Kickoff Return Def.	103rd (22.78)	33rd (18.12)
Avg. Punt Return	32nd (11.48)	5th (18.08)
Avg. Punt Return Def.	20th (4.22)	18th (4.11)
Field Goal Attempts	8-11	23-28
PAT	49-49	37-39

Key: National Rank out of 136 FBS Teams (Value)

Predictions:

- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 67.6 percent chance to win against the Rockets. Louisville has an FPI rating of 9.9 (29th overall), whereas Toledo has an FPI rating of 4.2 (52nd overall)

- SP+ Prediction: Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 58.0 percent chance to take down the Rockets. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 11.7 (29th overall), whereas Toledo has an SP+ rating of 8.4 (38th overall).

- Sagarin Prediction: Per Jeff Sagarin's ratings, the Cardinals have an 70 percent chance to defeat the Rockets. Louisville has a Sagarin rating of 80.43 (27th overall), whereas Toledo has a Sagarin rating of 72.41 (54th overall)

- College Football Graphs Prediction: Per College Football Graph's EPA Margin metric, the Cardinals have a 57.6 percent chance to take down the Rockets. Louisville has an EPA Margin of 0.128 (38th overall), whereas Toledo has an EPA Margin rating of 0.071 (50th overall).

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 28, Toledo 21.

(Photo of Clev Lubin: Matt Stone - Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)

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